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Persistence and cycles in US hours worked

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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.

Abstract

This paper analyses monthly hours worked in the US over the sample period 1939m1–2011m10 using a cyclical long memory model. This model, which is based on Gegenbauer processes, is characterised by autocorrelations decaying to zero cyclically and hyperbolically, with a spectral density that is unbounded at a non-zero frequency. One reason for choosing this specification is that the periodogram of the hours worked series has a peak at a frequency away from zero. The empirical results confirm that this model works extremely well for hours worked, and it is then employed to analyse their relationship with productivity. It is found that hours worked increase on impact in response to a technology shock (though the effect dies away rapidly), consistently with Real Business Cycle (RBC) models.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2014. "Persistence and cycles in US hours worked," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 504-511.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:38:y:2014:i:c:p:504-511
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.01.026
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    Cited by:

    1. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Persistence and cycles in historical oil price data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 511-516.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Luis Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M Miller, 2021. "Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(1), pages 53-72, January.
    3. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2015. "Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 40-52.
    4. Shim, Myungkyu & Yang, Hee-Seung, 2016. "New stylized facts on occupational employment and their implications: Evidence from consistent employment data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 402-415.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hours worked; Fractional integration; Cycles; Technology shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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