A Multivariate Long-Memory Model with Structural Breaks
This paper introduces a multivariate long-memory model with structural breaks. In the proposed framework, time series exhibit possibly fractional orders of integration which are allowed to be different in each subsample. The break date is endogenously determined using a procedure which minimises the residual sum of squares (RSS). Monte Carlo experiments show that this method for detecting breaks performs well in large samples. As an illustration, we estimate a trivariate VAR including prices, employment and GDP in both the US and Mexico. For the subsample preceding the break our findings are similar to those of earlier studies based on a standard VAR approach in both countries, in the sense that the variables exhibit integer degrees of integration. On the contrary, the series are found to be fractionally integrated after the break, with the fractional differencing parameters being higher than 1 in the case of Mexico.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988.
"Long memory and persistence in aggregate output,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Canova, Fabio, 2002.
"G-7 Inflation Forecasts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3283, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Morten Oerregaard Nielsen, .
"Efficient Inference in Multivariate Fractionally Integrated Time Series Models,"
Economics Working Papers
2002-6, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Morten Orregaard Nielsen, 2004. "Efficient inference in multivariate fractionally integrated time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 63-97, 06.
- William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
- Norman Cameron & Derek Hum & Wayne Simpson, 1996. "Stylized Facts and Stylized Illusions: Inflation and Productivity Revisited," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 152-62, February.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon M. Potter, 2001.
"Recent changes in the U.S. business cycle,"
126, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004.
"Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate,"
Economics and Finance Discussion Papers
04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 521-544, 08.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2004. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Non-linearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate," HWWA Discussion Papers 259, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Non-Linearities And Fractional Integration In The Us Unemployment Rate," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-17, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Guglielmo M. Caporale, 2006. "Nonlinearities and fractional integration in the US unemployment rate," Faculty Working Papers 18/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000.
"Long Memory and Regime Switching,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
- Tom Doan, . "PPUNIT: RATS procedure to perform Phillips-Perron Unit Root test," Statistical Software Components RTS00160, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Linda Debenedictis, 1997. "A vector autoregressive model of the British Columbia regional economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 877-888.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001.
"The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
707, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "The less volatile U.S. economy: a Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations," Working Papers 2001-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Iris Claus, 1999. "Estimating potential output for New Zealand: a structural VAR approach," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Torsten Sløk, 2001. "Wage formation and employment in a cointegrated VAR model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(2), pages 2.
- Carlos Velasco, 2003. "Gaussian Semi-parametric Estimation of Fractional Cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 345-378, 05.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
- Gil-Alana, L. A., 2003. "A fractional multivariate long memory model for the US and the Canadian real output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 355-359, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1950. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.