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Reference Forecasts for CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Production in Portugal

Author

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  • José M. Belbute

    (University of Évora)

  • Alfredo M. Pereira

    (William and Mary, USA)

Abstract

We provide reference forecasts for CO2 emissions from burning fuel fossil and cement production in Portugal based on an ARFIMA model approach and using annual data from 1950 to 2017. Our "business as usual" projections suggest a pattern of decarbonization that will cause the reduction of 3.3 Mt until 2030 and 5.1 Mt between 2030 and 2050. This scenario allows us to assess effort required by the new IPCC goals to ensure carbon neutrality by 2050. For this objective to be achieved it is necessary for emissions to be reduced by 39.6 Mt by 2050. Our results suggest that of these, only 8.4 Mt will result from the inertia of the national emissions system. The remaining reduction on emissions of 31.2 Mt of CO2 will require additional policy efforts. Accordingly, our results suggest that about 79% of the reductions necessary to achieve IPCC goals require deliberate policy efforts. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory with mean reversion suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure that these reductions in emissions are also permanent.

Suggested Citation

  • José M. Belbute & Alfredo M. Pereira, 2019. "Reference Forecasts for CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Combustion and Cement Production in Portugal," GEE Papers 00126, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Aug 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:00126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Renquan Huang & Jing Tian, 2022. "Dynamic Scenario Analysis of Science and Technology Innovation to Support Chinese Cities in Achieving the “Double Carbon” Goal: A Case Study of Xi’an City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Hu, Yusha & Man, Yi, 2023. "Energy consumption and carbon emissions forecasting for industrial processes: Status, challenges and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
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    5. Ghazala Aziz & Rida Waheed & Suleman Sarwar & Mohd Saeed Khan, 2022. "The Significance of Governance Indicators to Achieve Carbon Neutrality: A New Insight of Life Expectancy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    CO2 emissions; IPCC emission targets; long memory; ARFIMA; Portugal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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