Has modelsí forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?
We evaluate various modelsí relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the modelsí relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the modelsí relative performance has, in fact, changed dramatically over time, both for revised and real-time data, and investigate possible factors that might explain such changes. In addition, this paper establishes two empirical stylized facts. Namely, most predictors for output growth lost their predictive ability in the mid-1970s, and became essentially useless in the last two decades. When forecasting inflation, instead, fewer predictors are significant (among which, notably, capacity utilization and unemployment), and their predictive ability significantly worsened around the time of the Great Moderation.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097|
Phone: (919) 660-1800
Fax: (919) 684-8974
Web page: http://econ.duke.edu/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antonello D'Agostino & Domenico Giannone & Paolo Surico, 2005.
"(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability,"
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Domenico, Giannone & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 6594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- D’Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo, 2006. "(Un)Predictability and macroeconomic stability," Working Paper Series 0605, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:08-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics Webmaster)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.