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Fractional Differencing Modeling And Forecasting Of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates

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  • John T. Barkoulas
  • Christopher F. Baum

Abstract

We investigate the low frequency properties of three- and six- month rates for Eurocurrency deposits denominated in eight major currencies with specific emphasis on fractional dynamics. Using the fractional integration testing procedure suggested by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983), we find that several of the Eurocurrency deposit rates are fractionally integrated processes with long memory. These findings have important implications for econometric modeling, forecasting, and cointegration testing of Eurocurrency rates.
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Suggested Citation

  • John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum, 1997. "Fractional Differencing Modeling And Forecasting Of Eurocurrency Deposit Rates," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 355-372, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:20:y:1997:i:3:p:355-372
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1475-6803.1997.tb00254.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    2. repec:bla:jtsera:v:4:y:1983:i:4:p:221-238 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Barkoulas, John T & Labys, Walter C & Onochie, Joseph I, 1999. "Long Memory In Futures Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 91-100, February.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
    5. repec:bla:jtsera:v:14:y:1993:i:3:p:235-246 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hsing Fang & Kon S. Lai & Michael Lai, 1994. "Fractal structure in currency futures price dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 169-181, April.
    7. Lo, Andrew W, 1991. "Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-1313, September.
    8. repec:bla:jtsera:v:14:y:1993:i:4:p:369-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
    10. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
    11. Ray, Bonnie K., 1993. "Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 255-269, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-AlaƱa, 2011. "Interest rate dynamics in Kenya," NCID Working Papers 10/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    2. repec:cii:cepiie:2017-q4-152-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Li, Daye & Nishimura, Yusaku & Men, Ming, 2016. "Why the long-term auto-correlation has not been eliminated by arbitragers: Evidences from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 167-178.
    4. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    5. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas, 2006. "Long-memory forecasting of US monetary indices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 291-302.
    6. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.
    7. repec:eee:inteco:v:152:y:2017:i:c:p:116-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Carcel, Hector & Gil-Alana, Luis, 2017. "Central bank policy rates: Are they cointegrated?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 116-123.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "Testing the Fisher Hypothesis in the G-7 Countries Using I(d) Techniques," CESifo Working Paper Series 6482, CESifo Group Munich.
    10. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Atreya Chakraborty, 1998. "Persistent Dependence in Foreign Exchange Rates? A Reexamination," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 377, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 21 Apr 2000.
    11. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:5:p:775-789 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Margaret R. Maier & Nigel Meade, 2003. "Evidence of long memory in short-term interest rates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(8), pages 553-568.
    13. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2016. "Persistence and cyclical dependence in the monthly euribor rate," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 40(1), pages 157-171, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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