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Evidence on the Extent and Potential Sources of Long Memory in U.S. Treasury Security Returns and Yields

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  • ROBERT A. CONNOLLY
  • Z. NURAY GÜNER
  • KENNETH N. HIGHTOWER

Abstract

Unlike equity returns, many fixed‐income return measures appear to display long memory. We show that the extent of long memory differs strongly for gross and excess holding period returns on U.S. Treasury securities. Granger and others have argued that long memory may only reflect infrequent structural breaks. We explore the impact of structural instability on tests for long memory and find only weak indications that it lies behind the long memory in our return series. The evidence of long memory remains strong for yield and term premia series even after accounting for a series of potential underlying structural changes.

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  • Robert A. Connolly & Z. Nuray Güner & Kenneth N. Hightower, 2007. "Evidence on the Extent and Potential Sources of Long Memory in U.S. Treasury Security Returns and Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 689-702, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:2-3:p:689-702
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00041.x
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    3. Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
    4. Daniela Osterrieder & Peter C. Schotman, 2012. "The Volatility of Long-term Bond Returns: Persistent Interest Shocks and Time-varying Risk Premiums," CREATES Research Papers 2012-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    5. Strohsal, Till & Weber, Enzo, 2011. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-007, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Khediri, Karim Ben & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency of developed and emerging bond markets: Evidence from long-spans of historical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 505(C), pages 632-647.
    7. Jan Willem van den End, 2011. "Statistical evidence on the mean reversion of interest rates," DNB Working Papers 284, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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