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Fractional integration and the volatility of UK interest rates

  • Simeon Coleman

    ()

  • Kavita Sirichand

    ()

Using fractional integration and GARCH modeling techniques, this paper investigates the dynamic properties of UK interest rates. We find evidence that, contrary to previous studies for the US and Canada, short rates are more nonstationary compared to longer rates. Further, differences in conditional volatility exist between rates of different maturities. We posit that the dynamics of interest rates may be both maturity-specific and country-specific and any a priori generalizing assumptions may be misleading.

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File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/repec/lec/leecon/dp11-29.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 11/29.

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Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision: May 2011
Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:11/29
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  1. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & M. Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure: some empirical evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 3437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Karanasos, M. & Sekioua, S.H. & Zeng, N., 2006. "On the order of integration of monthly US ex-ante and ex-post real interest rates: New evidence from over a century of data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-169, February.
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  5. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Is the Fisher Effect for Real? A Reexamination of the Relationship Between Inflation and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 3632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  9. John Barkoulas & Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Fractional monetary dynamics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(11), pages 1393-1400.
  10. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Christopher F. Baum & John Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1996. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 333., Boston College Department of Economics.
  12. Vitor Leone & Bruce Philp, 2010. "Surplus-Value And Aggregate Concentration In The Uk Economy, 1987-2009," Working Papers 2010/10, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  13. Bertrand Candelon & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Mean Reversion of Short-run Interest Rates in Emerging Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 119-135, 02.
  14. Tkacz Greg, 2001. "Estimating the Fractional Order of Integration of Interest Rates Using a Wavelet OLS Estimator," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, April.
  15. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  16. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  17. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2000. "Long memory story of the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 325-330, June.
  18. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Discrete Fourier Transforms of Fractional Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1243, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  19. Robert Ackrill & Adrian Kay, 2010. "WTO Regulations and Bioenergy Sustainability Certification – Synergies and Possible Conflicts," Working Papers 2010/9, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
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