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Investigating Business Cycle Synchronization in West Africa

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  • Simeon Coleman

Abstract

This paper contributes to the discussion on the long term sustainability of the embryonic second monetary union in Africa, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). We analyse the level of economic and monetary integration in West Africa by analysing the degree of growth cycle synchronisation between five candidate countries over the past thirty years. Our empirical approach improves on the standard Pearson Correlation between trend and cyclical components of GDP by analyzing a measure of co-movement at higher frequencies between computed z-scores for all possible pairings of the candidate countries. Our results indicate a lack of a consistent pattern of synchronized growth cycles, which raises concerns about the economic sustainability of the WAMZ, as it implies that members may face significant stabilisation costs. Some policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Simeon Coleman, 2011. "Investigating Business Cycle Synchronization in West Africa," Working Papers 2011/01, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2011/01
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    File URL: http://www.ntu.ac.uk/research/document_uploads/106216.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
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    3. Gregory, Allan W & Head, Allen C & Raynauld, Jacques, 1997. "Measuring World Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 677-701, August.
    4. Calderon, Cesar & Chong, Alberto & Stein, Ernesto, 2007. "Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 2-21, March.
    5. Vitor Leone & Bruce Philp, 2010. "Surplus-Value And Aggregate Concentration In The Uk Economy, 1987-2009," Working Papers 2010/10, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division.
    6. Clark, Todd E. & van Wincoop, Eric, 2001. "Borders and business cycles," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 59-85, October.
    7. Imbs, Jean, 2000. "Sectors and the OECD Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Crosby, Mark, 2003. "Business cycle correlations in Asia-Pacific," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-44, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Acalin & B. Cabrillac & G. Dufrénot & L. Jacolin & S. Diop, 2015. "Financial integration and growth correlation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working papers 561, Banque de France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; monetary unions;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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