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Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study

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  • Allegret, Jean-Pierre
  • Essaadi, Essahbi

Abstract

This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union in East Asia focusing on business cycles synchronization. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the East Asian integration process, we study whether East Asian countries are characterized by business cycle synchronization. The related empirical literature dedicated to business cycles synchronization in East Asia does not lead to firm conclusion. In this paper, we suggest a different empirical approach allowing, contrary to the previous studies, to detect endogenously structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure based on the time-varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but it distinguishes also this dynamics between short- and long-term. We compute also cohesion statistics to test if countries tend to be more synchronized or not. The main finding of this paper is that the increase in bilateral trade inside the East Asian region significantly improves long-run business cycle synchronization. The short-run influence of bilateral trade shows mixed results. Indeed, short-run cycles remain significantly influenced both by shocks hitting each country and by economic policy responses. As a consequence, more bilateral trade and convergence in economic policy constitute two complementary processes to promote business cycle synchronization.

Suggested Citation

  • Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:351-365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.08.014
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    1. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-577, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2015. "Globalization, Economic Growth and Institutional Development in China," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 31-63, March.
    4. Emilio Espino & Julian Kozlowski & Juan M. Sánchez, 2013. "Regionalization vs. globalization," Working Papers 2013-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Erden, Lutfi & Ozkan, Ibrahim, 2014. "Determinants of international transmission of business cycles to Turkish economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 383-390.
    6. Hideaki Hirata & M. Ayhan Kose & Chris Otrok, "undated". "Regionalization vs. Globalization," Working Paper 164456, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    7. Dufrénot, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2014. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-switching approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 186-197.
    8. Dong He & Wei Liao, 2012. "Asian Business Cycle Synchronization," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 106-135, February.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-568 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aloui, Chaker & Hkiri, Besma & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2016. "Real growth co-movements and business cycle synchronization in the GCC countries: Evidence from time-frequency analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 322-331.
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    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-062 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Kutan, Ali M. & Yaya, Mehmet E., 2017. "Testing the dependency theory on small island economies: The case of Cyprus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-11.
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    15. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 20-33.
    16. William Barnett & Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi, 2018. "The Causal Relationships between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201803, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    17. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    18. Creti, Anna & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2014. "Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 245-258.
    19. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.
    20. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:10:p:2153-2171 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. William Barnett & Zied Ftiti & Fredj Jawadi, 2018. "The Causal Relationships between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201803, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    22. Horvath, Denis & Sulikova, Veronika & Gazda, Vladimir & Sinicakova, Marianna, 2013. "The distance-based approach to the quantification of the world convergences and imbalances - comparisons across countries and factors," MPRA Paper 45033, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    East Asia; Monetary union; Business cycle synchronization; Spectral analysis; Time-varying coherence function;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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