IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia

  • Nagayasu, Jun

This paper analyzes macroeconomic interdependence among 10 Asian economies. In this connection, we decompose their macroeconomic activities (real GDP) into common and country-specific components using the Bai-Ng method (2004). Our results suggest first that both components are non-stationary and have permanent effects on their overall economy. Second, we find the relative importance of common factors in all countries in terms of their contribution to variations in real GDP. But evidence is also obtained for country-specific effects becoming increasingly important in countries like China in recent years. Therefore, if, for example, China is expected to grow at a fast pace in future, our findings imply that creation of a regional monetary union of these 10 countries needs to be held back until the Chinese economy has become more dominant in the region.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922-1425(10)00032-0
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.

Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 219-227

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:22:y:2010:i:4:p:219-227
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Weber, Enzo, 2006. "Common and uncommon sources of growth in Asia Pacific," MPRA Paper 3715, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2007.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  4. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  5. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Alan C. Stockman, 1987. "Sectoral and National Aggregate Disturbances to Industrial Output in Seven European Countries," NBER Working Papers 2313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June.
  9. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co-movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
  10. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  11. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2009. "A Political Economic Critique on the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, and the Implications for East Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(12), pages 1685-1705, December.
  12. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, 02.
  13. Crosby, Mark, 2003. "Business cycle correlations in Asia-Pacific," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-44, July.
  14. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Michael McAleer, 2004. "Is a monetary union feasible for East Asia?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1031-1043.
  15. Yung Chul Park & Kwanho Shin, 2009. "Economic Integration and Changes in the Business Cycle in East Asia: Is the Region Decoupling from the Rest of the World?-super-," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pages 107-140, January.
  16. Selover, David D., 1999. "International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 230-253, September.
  17. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  18. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2001. "Are current account deficits sustainable?: Evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 219-224, August.
  19. Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008. "Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  20. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," MPRA Paper 62445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2005. "Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 05/211, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement: A Robust Analysis," NBER Working Papers 10725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
  24. Ando, Mitsuyo, 2006. "Fragmentation and vertical intra-industry trade in East Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 257-281, December.
  25. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," ISER Discussion Paper 0574, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  26. Silvia Sgherri & Alessandro Galesi, 2009. "Regional Financial Spillovers Across Europe; A Global VAR Analysis," IMF Working Papers 09/23, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Selover, David D., 2004. "International co-movements and business cycle transmission between Korea and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 57-83, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:22:y:2010:i:4:p:219-227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.