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Economic Integration and Changes in the Business Cycle in East Asia: Is the Region Decoupling from the Rest of the World?-super-

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  • Yung Chul Park

    (Distinguished Professor, Division of International Studies, Korea University, 5-1 Anam-dong, Seongbuk-gu Seoul, Republic of Korea 136-701.)

  • Kwanho Shin

    (Professor, Department of Economics, Korea University, 5-1 Anam-dong, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 136-701.)

Abstract

Countries in East Asia (EA) have made a great deal of progress in integrating their economies since the early 1990s. There has been a sustained increase in intra-regional trade in EA. On finance, however, regional financial integration has been lagging behind trade integration and EA has reached out to global financial markets to effect deeper global integration. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of intra-regional and extra-regional financial integration on changes in the pattern of EA's business cycle since 1990 to see whether there is any ground for "decoupling" of EA from the United States and the EU. On trade relations, the empirical results show that deepening trade integration contributes to more synchronized output movements among EA countries. There is also evidence that financial integration enhances more synchronization of output, but because its impact is not strong, the extra-regional integration does not necessarily dispute the prediction that EA's output movement has become more idiosyncratic than before, and therefore less closely tied with that of the United States. (c) 2009 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Yung Chul Park & Kwanho Shin, 2009. "Economic Integration and Changes in the Business Cycle in East Asia: Is the Region Decoupling from the Rest of the World?-super-," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 8(1), pages 107-140, Winter.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:8:y:2009:i:1:p:107-140
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    Cited by:

    1. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2010. "East Asia in World Trade: The Decoupling Fallacy, Crisis, and Policy Challenges," FIW Working Paper series 052, FIW.
    2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, pages 219-227.
    3. Soumyananda Dinda, 2014. "China integrates Asia with the world: an empirical study," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 70-89, May.
    4. Changmo Ahn & Gyemin Lee & Dongkoo Chang, "undated". "The Global Financial Crisis and Transmission Channels: An International Network Analysis," Working Papers wp07, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    5. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2011. "China’s Trade in Asia and the World: Long run Relation with Short run Dynamics," MPRA Paper 30664, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 May 2011.
    6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, pages 65-95.
    7. Mia Mikic & Mochamad Pasha (ed.), 2011. "Fighting Irrelevance: The Role of Regional Trade Agreements in International Production Networks in Asia," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number tipub2597, September.
    8. Kimura, Fukunari & Obashi, Ayako, 2011. "Production Networks in East Asia: What We Know So Far," ADBI Working Papers 320, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    9. Selover, David D. & Yagihashi, Takeshi, 2015. "Examining industrial interdependence between Japan and South Korea: A FAVAR approach," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 67-87.
    10. Trancoso, Tiago, 2014. "Emerging markets in the global economic network: Real(ly) decoupling?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 499-510.
    11. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization in Asia-Pacific: New evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, pages 20-33.
    12. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2017. "China's evolving role in global production networks: implications for Trump's trade war," Departmental Working Papers 2017-08, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    13. Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2013. "Understanding Innovation in Production Networks in East Asia," Trade Working Papers 23395, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Romain A Duval & Kevin C Cheng & Kum Hwa Oh & Richa Saraf & Dulani Seneviratne, 2014. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization; A Reappraisal with Focus on Asia," IMF Working Papers 14/52, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia's Decoupling: Fact, Fairytale or Forecast?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 321-344, August.

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