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The role of China in Asia: engine, conduit, or steamroller?

Author

Listed:
  • Shaghil Ahmed
  • Brahima Coulibaly
  • Jane Haltmaier
  • Ross Knippenberg
  • Sylvain Leduc
  • Mario Marazzi
  • Beth Anne Wilson

Abstract

This paper assesses China's role in Asia as an independent engine of growth, as a conduit of demand from the industrial countries, and as a competitor for export markets. We provide both macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the impact of U.S. and Chinese demand on the output of the Asian economies by estimating growth comovements and VARs. The results suggest an increasing role of China as an independent source of growth. The microeconomic analysis decomposes trade into basic products, parts and components, and finished goods. We find a large role for parts and components trade consistent with China playing an important and increasing role as a conduit. We also estimate some regressions that show that China's increasing presence in export markets has had a negative effect on exports of some products for some other Asian economies, but not for other products, including those of the important electronic high-technology industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaghil Ahmed & Brahima Coulibaly & Jane Haltmaier & Ross Knippenberg & Sylvain Leduc & Mario Marazzi & Beth Anne Wilson, 2007. "The role of China in Asia: engine, conduit, or steamroller?," International Finance Discussion Papers 904, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:904
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Soyoung Kim & Jong‐Wha Lee & Cyn‐Young Park, 2011. "Emerging Asia: Decoupling or Recoupling," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 23-53, January.
    2. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2010. "Can Trade with the People’s Republic of China Be an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia ," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 27(1), pages 160-181.
    3. Rueda Maurer, Maria, 2017. "Supply chain trade and technological transfer in the ASEAN+3 region," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 277-289.
    4. Ippei Fujiwara & Koji Takahashi, 2012. "Asian Financial Linkage: Macro‐Finance Dissonance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 136-159, February.
    5. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Pula, Gabor, 2009. "Has emerging Asia decoupled? An analysis of production and trade linkages using the Asian international input-output table," Working Paper Series 993, European Central Bank.
    6. Hongyi Chen & Lars Jonung & Olaf Unteroberdoerster, 2014. "Lessons for China from Financial Liberalization in Scandinavia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-44, Winter.
    7. Zhiwei Zhang, 2008. "Can Demand from China Shield East Asian Economies from Global Slowdown?," Working Papers 0819, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    8. Ivan Roberts & Anthony Rush, 2010. "Sources of Chinese Demand for Resource Commodities," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2010-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 351-365.
    10. Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2012. "Is china climbing up the quality ladder?," Working Papers 1209, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    11. Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2009. "The People’s Republic of China as an Engine of Growth for Developing Asia? Evidence from Vector Autoregression Models," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 175, Asian Development Bank.
    12. repec:hhs:bofitp:2012_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2008. "South-South Regionalism And Trade Cooperation In The Asia-Pacific Region," MPRA Paper 10886, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.

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    Keywords

    Economic conditions - China; Economic policy - China;

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