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One Money, One Cycle? The EMU Experience

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  • Martin Gächter

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

  • Aleksandra Riedl

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Foreign Research Division)

Abstract

We examine whether the introduction of the euro had a significantly positive impact on the synchronization of business cycles among members of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) which might arise due to the lack of country-specific monetary policy shocks in the euro area. Empirical evidence on this relationship is rare so far and su ers from methodical weaknesses, such as the absence of time variability, which is crucial for addressing this issue. Using a synchronization index that is constructed on a year-by-year basis (1993{2011), we uncover a strong and robust empirical finding: the adoption of the euro has significantly increased the correlation of member countries' business cycles above and beyond the e ect of higher trade integration. Thus, our results substantially strengthen the conclusion by Frankel & Rose (1998), i.e. a country is more likely to satisfy the criteria for entry into a currency union ex post rather than ex ante. Remarkably, however, this reasoning is even verified when controlling for the e ect of increased trade linkages implied by entering a currency union.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl, 2013. "One Money, One Cycle? The EMU Experience," Working Papers 186, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbwp:186
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeroen Hessel, 2019. "Medium-term asymmetric fluctuations and EMU as an optimum currency area," DNB Working Papers 644, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Luis J. Álvarez & M.ª Dolores Gadea & Ana Gómez Loscos, 2021. "La evolución cíclica de la economía española en el contexto europeo," Occasional Papers 2103, Banco de España.
    3. Mark Mink & Jan Jacobs & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Euro Area Imbalances," CESifo Working Paper Series 6291, CESifo.
    4. Mohd Hussain Kunroo, 2019. "Trade, Industrial Dissimilarity, FDI and Business Cycle Co-movements: EC3SLS Evidence from Eurozone Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 327-359, August.
    5. Martin Gächter & Alexander Gruber & Aleksandra Riedl, 2017. "Wage Divergence, Business Cycle Co-Movement and the Currency Union Effect," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(6), pages 1322-1342, November.
    6. Cinzia Alcidi & Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Florian Neumeier, 2017. "The Nature of Shocks in the Eurozone and Their Absorption Channels," EconPol Policy Reports 3, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Gächter, Martin & Ramskogler, Paul & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2018. "The trinity of wage setting in EMU: A policy proposal," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 284-304.
    8. Bierbaumer-Polly, Jürgen & Huber, Peter & Huber, Petr, 2015. "The Impact of EU-Accession on Regional Business Cycle Synchronization and Sector Specialization," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113154, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Campos, Nauro F. & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2019. "Business cycle synchronisation and currency unions: A review of the econometric evidence using meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 274-283.
    10. Agnieszka Gehringer & Jörg König, 2021. "Recent Patterns of Economic Alignment in the European (Monetary) Union," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-23, August.
    11. Campos, Nauro F. & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2017. "Business cycle synchronisation in a currency union : Taking stock of the evidence," Research Discussion Papers 28/2017, Bank of Finland.
    12. Jakob de Haan & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Renske Zijm, 2022. "Coherence of Output Gaps in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Covid-19 Shock," CESifo Working Paper Series 9654, CESifo.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Clemens Domnick & Daniel Gros, 2017. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the EMU: Core vs. Periphery," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 863-892, November.
    14. Samarina, Anna & Zhang, Lu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-98.
    15. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-19, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. Antje Hildebrandt & Isabella Moder, 2015. "Business cycle synchronization between the Western Balkans and the European Union," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 8-25.
    17. Sabrina Bunyan & David Duffy & George Filis & Ishmael Tingbani, 2018. "Bilateral business cycle synchronisation in the EMU: What is the role of fiscal policy and government size?," Working Papers 2018.02, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    18. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek &, 2017. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2017," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as17 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.
    19. Ahlborn, Markus & Wortmann, Marcus, 2018. "The core‒periphery pattern of European business cycles: A fuzzy clustering approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 12-27.
    20. Jürgen Bierbaumer-Polly & Peter Huber & Petr Rozmahel, 2016. "Regional Business-Cycle Synchronization, Sector Specialization and EU Accession," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 544-568, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; EMU; endogeneity; optimum currency areas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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