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Business cycle synchronisation in a currency union : Taking stock of the evidence

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  • Campos, Nauro F.
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko
  • Korhonen, Iikka

Abstract

This paper offers a first systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3,000 business cycle synchronisation coefficients as well as their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias; (4) our difference-in-differences estimates suggest the euro accounted for approximately half of the observed increase in synchronisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Campos, Nauro F. & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2017. "Business cycle synchronisation in a currency union : Taking stock of the evidence," Research Discussion Papers 28/2017, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_028
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    2. Nikolov, Plamen & Pasimeni, Paolo, 2019. "Fiscal Stabilization in the United States: Lessons for Monetary Unions," BoF Economics Review 6/2019, Bank of Finland.
    3. Petr Vanek & Petr Korab, 2018. "Determinants of Deposit and Credit Euroization in Eastern Europe: A Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2018-73, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    4. Kurt Bayer & Andreas Breitenfellner, 2018. "What is the appropriate role of structural reforms in E(M)U deepening?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3-18, pages 102-112.
    5. Kurt Bayer, 2018. "Which Structural Reforms Does E(M)U Need to Function Properly?," wiiw Policy Notes 28, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Bahoo, Salman & Alon, Ilan & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2020. "Sovereign wealth funds: Past, present and future," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Sondermann, David & Consolo, Agostino & Gunnella, Vanessa & Koester, Gerrit & Lambrias, Kyriacos & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma & Nerlich, Carolin & Petroulakis, Filippos & Saiz, Lorena & Serafini, Roberta, 2019. "Economic structures 20 years into the euro," Occasional Paper Series 224, European Central Bank.
    8. Peter Backé & Sandra Dvorsky, 2018. "Enlargement of the euro area toward CESEE: progress and perspectives," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3-18, pages 43-56.
    9. Peter Huber & Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2019. "Editorial," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 1-3, February.
    10. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Patrick Christian Harms, 2020. "Better off without the Euro? A Structural VAR Assessment of European Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1907, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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