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Persistence of Inflationary shocks: Implications for West African Monetary Union Membership

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  • Paul Alagidede
  • Simeon Coleman
  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

Plans are far advanced to form a second monetary union, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), in Africa. While much attention is being placed on convergence criteria and preparedness of the five aspiring member states, less attention is being placed on the extent to which the dynamics of inflation in individual countries are (dis)similar. This paper aims to stimulate debate on the long term sustainability of the union by examining the dynamics of inflation within these countries. Using Fractional Integration (FI) methods, we establish that some significant differences exist among the countries. Shocks to inflation in Sierra Leone are non mean reverting; results for The Gambia, Ghana and Guinea-Bissau suggest some inflation persistence, despite being mean reverting. Some policy implications are discussed and some warnings are raised.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Alagidede & Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2010. "Persistence of Inflationary shocks: Implications for West African Monetary Union Membership," Working Papers 2010020, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2010020
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    Cited by:

    1. Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Godfrey Madigu, 2015. "Inflation Convergence in the East African Community: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Study," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 507-524, December.
    2. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Carlyn Dobson, 2011. "Inflation persistence: Implication for a monetary union in the Caribbean," Working Papers 2011017, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    3. Daniel Agyapong & Anokye M. Adam, 2012. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Implication for West African Monetary Zone," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 215-228, October.
    4. Daniel Agyapong, 2014. "Stock Market Integration in West African Monetary Zone: A Linear and Nonlinear Cointegration Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(5), pages 563-587, May.
    5. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Borja Balprad & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Unions in Africa: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Analysis," NCID Working Papers 11/2015, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflationary shocks; fractional integration; stationarity; West Africa; Monetary unions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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