Nominal and real convergence between the CEE countries and the EU: a fractional cointegration analysis
This paper examines the real and nominal convergence between the Central and Eastern European countries and the EU, using fractional cointegration analysis for the period 1980-2003. Fractional cointegration analysis is a flexible methodology, which allows for more subtle forms of mean reversion. The tests performed are those of Geweke and Porter-Hudak. The convergence processes are valid when macroeconomic time series used in the study are fractionally cointegrated. The results indicate that inflation and interest rates series of six sample countries are fractionally cointegrated with those of the EU. Therefore, nominal convergence has been achieved by some of the transition countries, but the equilibrium errors display long memory. Results also indicate that industrial outputs of most countries in the sample are not fractionally cointegrated with that of the EU. The results further indicate that both nominal and real convergence have been achieved only for Hungary.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 21 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brada, Josef C. & Ktan, Ali M., 2001.
"The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 07-2001, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Brada, Josef C. & Kutan, Ali M., 2001. "The convergence of monetary policy between candidate countries and the European Union," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 215-231, September.
- Karfakis, C. J. & Moschos, D.M., 1990.
"Interest Rate Linkages Within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis,"
144, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-94, August.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
- Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2001. "Similarity of supply and demand shocks between the euro area and the accession countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Abdol Soofi, 1998. "A fractional cointegration test of purchasing power parity: the case of selected members of OPEC," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 559-566.
- Kocenda, Evzen, 1999.
"Limited Macroeconomic Convergence in Transition Countries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
- Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, 07.
- Haug, Alfred A. & MacKinnon, James G. & Michelis, Leo, 2000. "European Monetary Union: a cointegration analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 419-432, June.
- Stilianos Fountas & Jyh-Lin Wu, 1998. "Tests for interest rate convergence and structural breaks in the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 127-132.
- Richards, Anthony J. & Tersman, Gunnar H. R., 1996.
"Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 121-145, October.
- Anthony J. Richards & Gunnar Tersman, 1995. "Growth, Nontradables, and Price Convergence in the Baltics," IMF Working Papers 95/45, International Monetary Fund.
- Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordon Ez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "Tests for interest rate convergence and structural breaks in the EMS: further analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 447-456.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- repec:syd:wpaper:144 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
- repec:cep:stiecm:/1993/265 is not listed on IDEAS
- Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December.
- P. S. Sephton, 2002. "Fractional cointegration: Monte Carlo estimates of critical values, with an application," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 331-335.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:21:p:2487-2500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.