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Tests for Interest Rate Convergence and Structural Breaks in the EMS

Author

Listed:
  • Stilianos Fountas
  • Jyh-lin Wu

    (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway)

Abstract

We use a new test for cointegration that allows for structural breaks in the cointegrating relationship to test for bilateral interest rate convergence in the European Monetary System. Contrary to previous studies that employed standard cointegration tests, we find strong evidence for convergence between German nominal interest rates and interest rates in four other EMS countries in the 1979-1995 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Stilianos Fountas & Jyh-lin Wu, 1997. "Tests for Interest Rate Convergence and Structural Breaks in the EMS," Working Papers 15, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1997.
    • Handle: RePEc:nig:wpaper:0015
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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    3. Mali J. Edison & Linda S. Kole, 1995. "European monetary arrangements: Implications for the dollar, exchange rate variability and credibility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 1(1), pages 61-86, March.
    4. Karfakis, Costas J & Moschos, Demetrios M, 1990. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 389-394, August.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Katsimbris, George M & Miller, Stephen M, 1993. "Interest Rate Linkages within the European Monetary System: Further Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 771-779, November.
    7. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    8. repec:syd:wpaper:144 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    10. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    11. West, Kenneth D, 1988. "Asymptotic Normality, When Regressors Have a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1397-1417, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Kasman, Adnan & Kirbas-Kasman, Saadet & Turgutlu, Evrim, 2008. "Monetary policy convergence of potential EMU accession countries: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 340-350, March.
    2. Frömmel, Michael & Kruse, Robinson, 2015. "Interest rate convergence in the EMS prior to European Monetary Union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 990-1004.
    3. Alexander Ludwig, 2014. "Credit risk-free sovereign bonds under Solvency II: a cointegration analysis with consistently estimated structural breaks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(12), pages 811-823, June.
    4. Sonila Beliu & Matthew Higgins, 2004. "Fractional cointegration analysis of EU convergence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(14), pages 1607-1611.
    5. Marjan Petreski, 2009. "Brief Empirics Of Interest - Rate Differential In Macedonia," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 5-11, June.
    6. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wegener, Christoph & Basse, Tobias, 2014. "Testing for a break in the persistence in yield spreads of EMU government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    7. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Yau, Hwey-Yun, 2004. "Time series analysis for the interest rates relationships among China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan money markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 171-188, February.
    8. Chun-Ping Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2010. "A Re-examination of German Government Approval and Economic Performance: Is There a Stable Relationship between Them?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 25-43.
    9. Ching-Chuan Tsong & Cheng-Feng Lee, 2013. "Further Evidence On Real Interest Rate Equalization: Panel Information, Non-Linearities And Structural Changes," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65, pages 85-105, May.
    10. Adnan Kasman & Saadet Kirbas-Kasman & Evrim Turgutlu, 2005. "Nominal and real convergence between the CEE countries and the EU: a fractional cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2487-2500.

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