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Indeterminacy, Bifurcations, And Unemployment Fluctuations

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  • DUFOURT, FRÉDÉRIC
  • LLOYD-BRAGA, TERESA
  • MODESTO, LEONOR

Abstract

We incorporate imperfectly insured unemployment in the finance constrained economy proposed by Woodford (1986), by introducing unions and unemployment benefits financed by labor taxation. We show that this simple extension of the Woodford model changes drastically its stability conditions and local dynamics around the steady state. In fact, in contrast to related models in the literature, we find that, under constant returns to scale in production: (i) indeterminacy always prevails in the case of a unitary elasticity of substitution between capital and labor; (ii) flip and Hopf bifurcations occur for empirically credible elasticities of substitution between capital and labor, so that a rich set of dynamics may emerge at "realistic" parameters' values.
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  • Dufourt, Frédéric & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2008. "Indeterminacy, Bifurcations, And Unemployment Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 75-89, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:12:y:2008:i:s1:p:75-89_07
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    1. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    2. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
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    5. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Balanced-Budget Rules, Distortionary Taxes, and Aggregate Instability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 976-1000, October.
    6. Duffy, John & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2000. "A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation of the Aggregate Production Function Specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 87-120, March.
    7. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a finance constrained unionized economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 347-364, April.
    8. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
    9. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    10. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Pintus, Patrick & de Vilder, Robin, 1998. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Competitive Nonlinear Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 14-59, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2016. "Endogenous Procyclicality of Labor Productivity, Employment, Real Wages and Effort in Conditionally Heteroskedastic Sunspots Unemployment Business Cycles with Negishi-Solow Efficiency Wages," Working Papers 2016:10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Jean-Michel Grandmont, "undated". "Countercyclical Endogenous Uncertainty Shocks, Efficiency Wages and Procyclical Precautionary Labor Productivity," Working Papers 2017:25, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Xue, Jianpo & Yip, Chong K., 2014. "Factor substitution and taxation in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 101-112.
    4. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2014. "Market distortions and local indeterminacy: A general approach," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 216-247.
    5. Marta Aloi & Teresa Lloyd-Braga & Manuel Leite-Monteiro, 2017. "Welfare benefit reforms and employment," Discussion Papers 2017/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Negishi-Solow efficiency wages, unemployment insurance and dynamic deterministic indeterminacy," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 4(2), pages 247-272.
    7. Leonor Modesto, 2008. "Unions, Firing Costs, and Unemployment," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 22(3), pages 509-546, September.
    8. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2012. "Can Taxes Stabilize the Economy in the Presence of Consumption Externalities?," IZA Discussion Papers 6876, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Thomas Seegmuller & Leonor Modesto & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 2008. "Market Imperfections and Endogenous Fluctuations," 2008 Meeting Papers 739, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Nicolas Abad & Thomas Seegmuller & Alain Venditti, 2012. "Aggregate Instability under Labor Income Taxation and Balanced-Budget Rules: Preferences Matter," AMSE Working Papers 1217, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised Apr 2012.
    11. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    12. Elena G. Irwin, 2010. "New Directions For Urban Economic Models Of Land Use Change: Incorporating Spatial Dynamics And Heterogeneity," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 65-91.

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