IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eis/articl/209tang.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing for Non-linearity in the Balancing Item of Balance of Payments Accounts: The Case of 20 Industrial Countries

Author

Abstract

The non-linearity of financial and economic time series is becoming a fundamental issue both at the theoretical and empirical level. This applies equally to balance of payments statistics such as balancing item (net errors and omissions), which is a residual variable needed to ensure that all debit and credit entries in the balance of payments statement sum to zero. This univariate variable is only one of a number of accounting balances that can be established in economic statistics that are used in assessing the accuracy of the balance of payments statistics. Except for Tang et al (forthcoming), the existing works which have studied the balancing item either disregard the presence of non-linearity or assume at the outset that the non-linearity takes a particular form. An AR(p) model is employed in the present paper to remove any linear structure from the balancing item series. Applying a battery of non-linearity tests, the assumption of linearity is tested for 20 industrial countries' balancing item. In general, the statistical tests reveal the presence of non-linear dependencies in the balancing item series for 16 out of the 20 industrial countries. An implication is that the non-linear dynamics of these balancing item series should be incorporated in the modelling and forecasting exercises for a majority of the countries.

Suggested Citation

  • T Tang, 2009. "Testing for Non-linearity in the Balancing Item of Balance of Payments Accounts: The Case of 20 Industrial Countries," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 14(2), pages 107-124, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eis:articl:209tang
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economicissues.org.uk/Files/209Tang.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2002. "Testing the assumption of Linearity," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(29), pages 1-9.
    2. Duffy, M & Renton, Anthony, 1971. "An Analysis of the U. K. Balancing Item," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 12(3), pages 448-464, October.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    4. Barnett, William A. & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hinich, Melvin J. & Jungeilges, Jochen A. & Kaplan, Daniel T. & Jensen, Mark J., 1997. "A single-blind controlled competition among tests for nonlinearity and chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 157-192.
    5. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "Market capitalization and efficiency. Does it matter? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 707-713.
    6. Potter, Simon M, 1999. " Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    7. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "The influences of economic openness on Japan's balancing item: an empirical note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 7-10.
    8. Hinich, Melvin J & Patterson, Douglas M, 1985. "Evidence of Nonlinearity in Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 69-77, January.
    9. Dietrich K. Fausten & Brett Pickett, 2004. "'Errors & Omissions' in the Reporting of Australia's Cross-Border Transactions," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 101-115, March.
    10. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
    11. Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
    12. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
    13. Christis Tombazos, 2003. "New light on the 'impressionistic view' of the balancing item in Australia's balance of payments accounts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1369-1378.
    14. Tuck Cheong Tang & Evan Poh Hock Lau, 2007. "An empirical investigation on sustainability of balancing item in Asian countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 117-123.
    15. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Sustainability of balancing item of balance of payments accounts: fresh empirical evidence for G7 countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 251-254.
    16. Ashley, Richard A & Patterson, Douglas M, 1989. "Linear versus Nonlinear Macroeconomies: A Statistical Test," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 685-704, August.
    17. Mills, Terence C, 1991. " Nonlinear Time Series Models in Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 215-242.
    18. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
    19. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2006. "Japan's balancing item: do timing errors matter?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 81-87.
    20. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Pelloni, Gianluigi, 2003. "Testing for non-linearity in labour markets: the case of Germany and the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 275-286, April.
    21. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Serkan TA┼×TAN, 2015. "Sustainability of balancing item of balance of payment for OECD countries: evidence from Fourier Unit Root Tests," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(604), A), pages 93-100, Autumn.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-16-00803 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:agr:journl:v:3(604):y:2015:i:3(604):p:93-100 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eis:articl:209tang. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dan Wheatley). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/bsntuuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.