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Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries

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  • Serhan Cevik
  • Katerina Teksoz

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a structural vector autoregressive model. The originality and significance of the paper are in constructing and analyzing “synthetic” aggregate variables for the GCC as a whole. The results indicate that the interest rate and bank lending channels are relatively effective in influencing non-hydrocarbon output and consumer prices, while the exchange rate channel does not appear to play an important role as a monetary transmission mechanism because of the pegged exchange rate regimes. The empirical analysis suggests that policy measures and structural reforms — strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating the development of liquid domestic capital markets — would advance the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the GCC countries.

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  • Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2013. "Lost in Transmission? The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Channels in the GCC Countries," Middle East Development Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 1350018-131, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rmdjxx:v:5:y:2013:i:3:p:1350018-1-1350018-21
    DOI: 10.1142/S1793812013500181
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    2. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Molyneux, Phil, 2018. "Diversification and bank stability in the GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 17-43.
    3. Hamza, Hichem & Saadaoui, Zied, 2018. "Monetary transmission through the debt financing channel of Islamic banks: Does PSIA play a role?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 557-570.
    4. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.
    5. Amine Ben Amar, 2022. "On the role of Islamic banks in the monetary policy transmission in Saudi Arabia," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(1), pages 55-94, March.
    6. Patrick, Chileshe M. & Akanbi, Olusegun Ayodele, 2017. "The Relative Importance of the Channels of Monetary Policy Transmission in a Developing Country: The Case of Zambia," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 5(2), July.
    7. Abdullah M. H. Alharbi, 2023. "Oil Shocks, Monetary Policy, and Stock Returns: A Case of Oil-based Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(6), pages 56-63, November.
    8. Uddin, Md Akther, 2019. "Islamic Monetary Economics: Insights from the Literature," MPRA Paper 102887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Uddin, Md Akther, 2016. "Reemergence of Islamic Monetary Economics: A Review of Theory and Practice," MPRA Paper 72081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Chevaughn van der Westhuizen & Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye, 2023. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in the Face of Uncertainty: The Real Macroeconomic Impact of a Monetary Policy Shock in South Africa during High and Low Uncertainty States," Working Papers 202331, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    11. Mariam El Hamiani Khatat, 2016. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Islamic Banking," IMF Working Papers 2016/072, International Monetary Fund.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Haiti: 2012 Article IV Consultation and Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/090, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Abouwafia, Hashem E. & Chambers, Marcus J., 2015. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 14-28.
    14. Gabriele Tondl, 2016. "Interest rates, corporate lending and growth in the Euro Area," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp227, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    15. Amine Ben Amar, 2019. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission in a Dual Banking System: Further Insights from TVP-VAR Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(4), pages 2317-2332.
    16. Olumuyiwa Tolulope Apanisile, 2021. "Remittances, financial development and the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanism in Nigeria: a DSGE approach (1986–2018)," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 91-112, June.
    17. Zulquar Nain & Bandi Kamaiah, 2020. "Uncertainty and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 237-265.
    18. Marouane Daoui, 2023. "Econometric assessment of the monetary policy shocks in Morocco: Evidence from a Bayesian Factor-Augmented VAR," Papers 2302.14114, arXiv.org.

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