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Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor‐Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach

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  • GIANLUCA LAGANÀ
  • ANDREW MOUNTFORD

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of UK interest rates using a factor‐augmented vector autoregression model (VAR), similar to the one suggested by Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 120 (2005), No. 1, pp. 387–422). The method allows impulse response functions to be generated for all the variables in the data set and so is able to provide a more complete description of UK monetary policy than is possible using standard VARs. The results show that the addition of factors to a benchmark VAR generates a more reasonable characterization of the effects of unexpected increases in the interest rate and, in particular, gets rid of a ‘price puzzle’ response present in the benchmark VAR. The extra information generated by this method, however, also brings to light other identification issues, notably house price and stock market ‘puzzles’. Importantly the out‐of‐sample prediction performance of the factor‐augmented VARs is also very good and strongly superior to those of the benchmark VAR and simple autoregression models.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluca Laganà & Andrew Mountford, 2005. "Measuring Monetary Policy In The Uk: A Factor‐Augmented Vector Autoregression Model Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 77-98, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:73:y:2005:i:s1:p:77-98
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2005.00462.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Alex Mandilaras & Helen Popper, 2009. "Capital Flows, Capitalization, and Openness in Emerging East Asian Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 734-750, September.
    2. Laganà, Gianluca & Sgro, Pasquale Michael, 2011. "A factor-augmented VAR approach: The effect of a rise in the US personal income tax rate on the US and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1163-1169, May.
    3. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    4. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, February.
    5. Sigal Ribon, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Inflation: A Factor Augmented VAR Approach using disaggregated data," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2011.12, Bank of Israel.
    6. Jalali-Naini , Ahmad. R. & Hemati , Maryam, 2012. "The Effect of Monetary Shocks on Disaggregated Prices in a Data Rich Environment: a Bayesian FAVAR Approach," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 6(4), pages 27-60, July.
    7. Kashif Munir & Abdul Qayyum, 2014. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy in Pakistan: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 843-864, May.
    8. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt Crisis in Europe (2001-2015): A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," MPRA Paper 89998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
    10. Kashif Munir, 2020. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy on Money and Credit in Pakistan," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(2), June.
    11. Andrés Felipe Londono & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    12. Rita Soares, 2011. "Assessing monetary policy in the euro area: a factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Papers w201111, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Masud Alam, 2021. "Output, Employment, and Price Effects of U.S. Narrative Tax Changes: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression Approach," Papers 2106.10844, arXiv.org.
    14. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2014. "Fiscal Policy And Lending Relationships," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 696-712, April.
    15. Laganà, Gianluca & Sgro, Pasquale Michael, 2013. "North American trade and US monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 698-705.
    16. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    17. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    18. Pang, Iris Ai Jao, 2010. "Forecasting Hong Kong economy using factor augmented vector autoregression," MPRA Paper 32495, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Amarasekara, Chandranath, 2008. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 64866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron Smith, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling With A Global Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(s1), pages 24-49, September.
    21. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Soklis, George & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2017. "Tourism expenditures and crisis transmission: A general equilibrium GVAR analysis with network theory," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 74-94.
    22. Estrella, Arturo, 2015. "The Price Puzzle And Var Identification," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1880-1887, December.
    23. Gianluca Lagana & Pasquale Sgro, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and US-Canadian Trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1856-1868.
    24. Ron Smith & Gylfi Zoega, 2005. "Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0524, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    25. Kerli Lille, 2017. "The Role Of Capital Controls In Mediating Global Shocks," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 102, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).

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