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Imperfect information, multiple shocks, and policy's signaling role

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  • Berkelmans, Leon

Abstract

In multiple shock models, when agents have imperfect information they attempt to infer a shock's type, in addition to its size. In this environment, monetary policy plays an important signaling role. This paper highlights this signaling role by showing that conclusions from imperfect information monetary models are sensitive to the number of shocks included. With multiple shocks, contractionary monetary policy can initially increase inflation and delay the eventual disinflation. Moreover, multiple shocks can result in destabilizing price flexibility, while optimal policy's response to one shock will depend on the existence of other shocks, contrary to a typical linear-quadratic framework.

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  • Berkelmans, Leon, 2011. "Imperfect information, multiple shocks, and policy's signaling role," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 373-386.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:58:y:2011:i:4:p:373-386
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2011.07.002
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    2. Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
    3. Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Luca Rossi, 2020. "Monetary policy gradualism and the nonlinear effects of monetary shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1275, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Jan Filacek & Jakub Mateju, 2014. "Adverse Effects of Monetary Policy Signalling," Working Papers 2014/13, Czech National Bank.
    5. Jia, Chengcheng, 2023. "The informational effect of monetary policy and the case for policy commitment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    6. Vania Stavrakeva & Jenny Tang, 2018. "The dollar during the global recession: US monetary policy and the exorbitant duty," Working Papers 18-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Kenza Benhima & Isabella Blengini, 2020. "Optimal Monetary Policy when Information is Market-Generated," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(628), pages 956-975.
    8. Chengcheng Jia, 2019. "The Informational Effect of Monetary Policy and the Case for Policy Commitment," Working Papers 19-07R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 09 May 2022.
    9. Jenny Tang, 2013. "Uncertainty and the signaling channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 15-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Calvin He, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Equity Markets and the Information Effect," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    12. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 661-698, June.

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