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Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S

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  • Pang, Ke
  • Siklos, Pierre L.

Abstract

​Relying on quarterly data since 1998 we estimate, for China and the U.S., small scale econometric models that economize on the number of variables employed and yet are rich enough to provide useful insights about spillover effects between the two countries under different maintained assumptions about the exogeneity of the macroeconomic relationship between them. We conclude that inflation in China responds to credit shocks. Indeed, the monetary transmission mechanism in China resembles that of the US even if the channels through which monetary policy affects their respective economies differ. We also find that the monetary policy stance of the PBOC was helpful in mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008-9. Finally, spillovers from the US to China are significant and originate from both through the real and financial sectors of the US economy. Publication keywords: spillovers, monetary policy in China, dynamic factor models, credit

Suggested Citation

  • Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofitp:2015_002
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    1. Georgios Magkonis & Simon Rudkin, 2019. "Does Trilemma Speak Chinese?," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2019-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    2. Yang, Jian & Yu, Ziliang & Ma, Jun, 2019. "China's financial network with international spillovers: A first look," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
    4. Bataa, Erdenebat & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2018. "China's increasing global influence: Changes in international growth linkages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 194-206.
    5. Lombardi, Domenico & Siklos, Pierre L. & Xie, Xiangyou, 2018. "Monetary policy transmission in systemically important economies and China’s impact," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 61-79.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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