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The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Deitz
  • Charles Steindel

Abstract

Business surveys often give early signals of the direction and magnitude of economic activity. One release, the relatively new Empire State Manufacturing Survey, is demonstrating an ability to provide information ahead of U.S. production and employment trends. In fact, the predictive power of this survey appears to be at least equal to that of two established manufacturing surveys. This issue is part of the Second District Highlights series.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Jan).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2005:i:jan:n:v.11no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew Harris & Raymond E. Owens & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2004. "Using manufacturing surveys to assess economic conditions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 65-92.
    2. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Research Paper 9124, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 61-69.
    4. Timothy G. Schiller & Michael E. Trebing, 2003. "Taking the measure of manufacturing," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 24-37.
    5. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 39-70.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Lawrence R. & Özmucur, Süleyman, 2010. "The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1453-1462, November.
    2. Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

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