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The relationship between the PMI and the Italian index of industrial production and the impact of the latest economic crisis

Author

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  • Valentina Aprigliano

    () (Universit� Libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

Survey data attract considerable interest as timely and reliable series for assessing the state of the economy. We investigate the relationship between the manufacturing PMI and the Index of Industrial Production (IPI) for Italy, with a special focus on the effects of the latest crisis. The manufacturing PMI tracks a medium-to-long run component of the IPI quarterly growth rate, which is estimated by a one-sided multivariate Wavelet filter. This filter provides more efficient estimates at the end of the sample than the Baxter and King method. Furthermore, the Wavelet basis allows us to take into account the time-varying oscillations of a series caused by the large negative shocks characterizing the latest global crisis, while the non-parametric framework does not force us to conclude definitely for the occurrence of structural breaks not yet testable rigorously.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Aprigliano, 2011. "The relationship between the PMI and the Italian index of industrial production and the impact of the latest economic crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 820, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_820_11
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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2011/2011-0820/en_tema_820.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aminghafari, Mina & Cheze, Nathalie & Poggi, Jean-Michel, 2006. "Multivariate denoising using wavelets and principal component analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2381-2398, May.
    2. Filippo Altissimo & Antonio Bassanetti & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A real time coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 436, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Research Paper 9124, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Li, Baibing & Martin, Elaine B. & Morris, A. Julian, 2002. "On principal component analysis in L1," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 471-474, September.
    5. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 61-69.
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    Cited by:

    1. Antonio M. Conti & Concetta Rondinelli, 2015. "Easier said than done: the divergence between soft and hard data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 258, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wavelet analysis; principal component analysis; business cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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