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Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index

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  • Ethan S. Harris

Abstract

The purchasing managers' index is a widely watched but virtually untested indicator of manufacturing activity. This article examines how well the index lives up to its billing as a leading indicator. The author also explores whether the index supplies information about the economy beyond that already provided by other indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aut, pages 61-69.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednqr:y:1991:i:aut:p:61-69:n:v.16no.3
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    File URL: http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/quarterly_review/1991v16/v16n3article5.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Duca, John V., 2013. "Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression style money market meltdown?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 747-758.
    2. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Gabe de Bondt, 2012. "Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate?," EcoMod2012 3896, EcoMod.
    4. Miller, Tom W. & Sabbarese, Donald, 2012. "An Economic Indicator for the State of the Economy in the Southeastern U.S," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1).
    5. Kilinc, Zubeyir & Yucel, Eray, 2016. "PMI Thresholds for GDP Growth," MPRA Paper 70929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Valentina Aprigliano, 2011. "The relationship between the PMI and the Italian index of industrial production and the impact of the latest economic crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 820, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Claudia Godbout & Jocelyn Jacob, 2010. "Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI," Discussion Papers 10-3, Bank of Canada.
    8. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.
    9. Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Jan).

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