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Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Cañas
  • Amy Jordan

Abstract

The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) are monthly surveys of service sector and retail firms in Texas conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TSSOS and TROS track the Texas private services sector, including general service businesses, retailers and wholesalers. The surveys provide invaluable information on regional economic conditions?information that Dallas Fed economists and the Bank president use in the formulation of monetary policy. This paper describes the survey?s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS and TROS indexes with regard to Texas employment growth. Regression analysis shows that several TSSOS and TROS indexes help explain monthly variation in Texas employment. In addition, most TSSOS and TROS indexes are also useful in forecasting Texas employment growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Cañas & Amy Jordan, 2018. "Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance," Working Papers 1807, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1807
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1807
    as

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    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2018/wp1807.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesus Cañas & Emily Kerr, 2014. "Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance," Working Papers 1416, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Michael E. Trebing, 1998. "What's happening in manufacturing: \\"survey says...\\"," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 15-29.
    3. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q III), pages 39-70.
    4. Matthew Harris & Raymond E. Owens & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2004. "Using manufacturing surveys to assess economic conditions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Fall), pages 65-92.
    5. Elif Sen, 2014. "Introducing the Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing survey," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q3, pages 15-22.
    6. Jacob Berman & Scott Brave & Thomas Walstrum, 2015. "The Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions: Quantifying the Seventh District’s Beige Book Report," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III.
    7. Timothy G. Schiller & Michael E. Trebing, 2003. "Taking the measure of manufacturing," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 24-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Services; Surveys; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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