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Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance

Author

Listed:
  • Jesus Cañas
  • Emily Kerr

Abstract

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) is a monthly survey of area manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. TMOS indexes provide timely information on manufacturing activity in Texas, which is useful for understanding broader changes in regional economic conditions. This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity. Regression analysis shows that several TMOS indexes successfully explain monthly changes in Texas employment and quarterly changes in gross state product. Forecasting exercises show that several TMOS indexes, particularly general business activity and growth rate of orders, are useful in predicting changes in Texas employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Cañas & Emily Kerr, 2014. "Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance," Working Papers 1416, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1416
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1416
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    File URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/papers/2014/wp1416.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Harris & Raymond E. Owens & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2004. "Using manufacturing surveys to assess economic conditions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Fall), pages 65-92.
    2. Timothy G. Schiller & Michael E. Trebing, 2003. "Taking the measure of manufacturing," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 24-37.
    3. Michael E. Trebing, 1998. "What's happening in manufacturing: \\"survey says...\\"," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 15-29.
    4. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q III), pages 39-70.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesus Cañas & Amy Jordan, 2018. "Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance," Working Papers 1807, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Manufacturing; Surveys; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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