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Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Zakrzewicz, Christopher J.
  • Brorsen, B. Wade
  • Briggeman, Brian C.

Abstract

This article determines the accuracy of quarterly land value forecasts provided by bankers through the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's Survey of Agricultural Credit Conditions. Bankers' qualitative forecasts of up, down, or no change are compared against actual, self-reported changes in land values. A large proportion of bankers forecast no change. Despite this action, aggregates of bankers' qualitative forecasts help predict changing land values and forecast better than naïve models. Thus, the forecasts in the survey are helpful in predicting land values.

Suggested Citation

  • Zakrzewicz, Christopher J. & Brorsen, B. Wade & Briggeman, Brian C., 2013. "Accuracy of Qualitative Forecasts of Farmland Values from the Federal Reserve's Land Value Survey," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 159-170, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:45:y:2013:i:01:p:159-170_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Fiechter, Chad & Kuethe, Todd, 2021. "Agricultural Lenders and Farmland Appraisers Disagreement on Farmland Value Expectations," 2021 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition (Virtual Meeting), October 6-7, 2021 316031, Regional Research Committee NC-1177 (formerly NC-1014): Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Ates, Aaron M. & Lusk, Jayson L. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2019. "Forecasting Meat Prices Using Consumer Expectations from the Food Demand Survey (FooDS)," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 50(01), March.
    3. Deokho Cho, 2015. "The Forecasting of Farmland Values for the Settlement of Farmland Pension System," ERSA conference papers ersa15p12, European Regional Science Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

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