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The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting

Author

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  • Klein, Lawrence R.
  • Özmucur, Süleyman

Abstract

Surveys improve forecasting performance by adding explanatory power to a model which is based on only past values of manufacturing growth. The issue addressed in this paper is whether surveys of production expectations, when added to equations that contain lagged values of a headline index pertaining to the real economy, improve forecasting performance. If so, it may be better for researchers to use not just the headline index, but production expectations or the Economic Sentiment Indicator if they wish to better predict manufacturing growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Klein, Lawrence R. & Özmucur, Süleyman, 2010. "The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1453-1462, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:6:p:1453-1462
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansson, Jesper & Jansson, Per & Lof, Marten, 2005. "Business survey data: Do they help in forecasting GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 377-389.
    2. Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Jan).
    3. Lawrence R. Klein & Suleyman Ozmucur, 2002. "Consumer Behavior Under the Influence of Terrorism Within the United States," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, Fall.
    4. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "On the Predictive Content of Production Surveys : a Pan-European Study," Other publications TiSEM adab9f0e-7dfd-4dc4-bd92-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:eb-17-00725 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," AQR Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
    4. repec:spr:soinre:v:135:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1490-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
    6. Kaufmann, Daniel & Scheufele, Rolf, 2017. "Business tendency surveys and macroeconomic fluctuations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 878-893.
    7. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0416-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hall, Stephen George & Roudoi, Andrei & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Lupu, Radu & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2014. "Lawrence R. Klein and the Economic Forecasting – A Survey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-14, March.

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