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Consumer Behavior Under the Influence of Terrorism Within the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Lawrence R. Klein

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Suleyman Ozmucur

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Many indicators are helpful in improving statistical performance for forecasting and policy analysis. We do believe, however, no single indicator (or type of indicator) can do the necessary work by itself. Any new finding is likely to make a better contribution in combination with others that have been found to be useful. Timeliness, flexibility, and foresight are important properties of indicators, and we are especially interested in information that reflects subjective feelings of participants in the economy. Results of surveys covering consumers, producers or managers are useful in forecasting major macroeconomic variables, like personal consumption expenditures and personal income. Preliminary results indicate that models including survey results perform better than those that do not include survey results. Other surveys would be appropriate for such macroeconomic variables as industrial production, employment, and financial market averages.

Suggested Citation

  • Lawrence R. Klein & Suleyman Ozmucur, 2002. "Consumer Behavior Under the Influence of Terrorism Within the United States," Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, Pepperdine University, Graziadio School of Business and Management, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, Fall.
  • Handle: RePEc:pep:journl:v:7:y:2002:i:3:p:1-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saul H. Hymans, 1970. "Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(2), pages 173-206.
    2. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    3. Nigel Pain & Martin Weale, 2001. "The Information Content of Consumer Surveys," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 178(1), pages 44-47, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Klein, Lawrence R. & Özmucur, Süleyman, 2010. "The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1453-1462, November.
    2. Castilla, Adolfo, 2015. "Proyecto LINK y Econometría de Alta Frecuencia: Las últimas aportaciones econométricas de Lawrence R. Klein /LINK Project and High Frequency Econometrics: Recent Econometric Contributions of Lawrence ," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 421-450, Mayo.
    3. Christian L. Redfearn, 2004. "Land Markets & Terrorism: Uncovering Perceptions of Risk by Examining Land Price Changes Following 9/11," Working Paper 8591, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer Behavior; Terrorism;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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