IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Consumer Expectations Of Russian Populations: Cohort Analysis (1996–2009)

  • Dilyara Ibragimova

    ()

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Registered author(s):

    The research deals with the analysis of consumer expectations of Russian population, which are mediated by many socio-demographic characteristics: income, age, education, place of residence, sex, etc. The paper points up the influence on variable “age” because it is rather complex itself. First, actual age represents biological characteristics. Second, “age” represents a unique birth cohort in terms of socialization and formation of life experience. Finally, all ages feature influence by a time period effect that reflects the socio-political, economic, and informational phenomena of the macro environment. Solving the problem of “identification” (i. e. the separation of these three effects), which inevitably arises in case of cohort analysis, is based on theoretical views concerning the character of consumer expectations and the results of empirical testing. Its point is that the aggregated Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) reflects the general socio-economic situation in a country at a certain time and allows us to use the CSI as a distillation of a specific time moment. The information base of research is the data of consumer survey although not the panel, but conducted over a 15-year period on the same methodology and sample. All 79 waves of cross-section data (from May 1996 to September 2009) were converted into a “quasi-longitudinal design”, the total sample of dataset was 182,507 respondents. The regression analysis demonstrates that belonging to a cohort actually determines significantly consumer sentiments. However, the nonlinear correlation describing such dependence showed that an increase of optimism/pessimism in respect for the economic and social development of the country happens non-uniformly from one cohort to another. In addition, the article attempts to implement approach to differentiation of generations, is not based on age differences, and the relationship with historical events. The research shows that an indicator such as the CSI could be one instrument for defining the time boundaries of the generations.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.hse.ru/data/2014/06/05/1323680078/41SOC2014.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by National Research University Higher School of Economics in its series HSE Working papers with number WP BRP 41/SOC/2014.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 43 pages
    Date of creation: 2014
    Date of revision:
    Publication status: Published in WP BRP Series: Sociology / SOC, May 2014, pages 1-43
    Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:41/soc/2014
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Myasnitskaya 20, Moscow 101000
    Phone: +7(495)7713232
    Fax: +7(495)6287931
    Web page: http://www.hse.ru/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S. Households," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(3), pages 575-609.
    2. F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1974. "Anticipatory and Objective Models of Durable Goods Demand," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 1, number 2, pages 136-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. E. Philip Howrey, 2001. "The Predictive Power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 175-216.
    4. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations Of Households And Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298, February.
    6. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
    7. Andy C.C. Kwan & John A. Cotsomitis, 2003. "Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," Departmental Working Papers _156, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
    8. Arie Kapteyn & R. Alessie & Annamaria Lusardi, 2003. "Explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts: productivity growth and social security," Working Papers 01-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
    9. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment: Evidence from Household Survey Data," Discussion Papers 13-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    10. Orazio Attanasio, 1993. "A cohort analysis of saving behaviour by US households," IFS Working Papers W93/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    11. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Garratt, Dean & Heravi, Saeed M., 2005. "Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 517-532, September.
    12. Shorrocks, A F, 1975. "The Age-Wealth Relationship: A Cross-Section and Cohort Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(2), pages 155-63, May.
    13. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:41/soc/2014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamil Abdulaev)

    or (Victoria Elkina)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.