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Transizione demografica e formazione del risparmio delle famiglie italiane

  • M. Baldini
  • C. Mazzaferro

This paper studies the relationship between population ageing and saving formation by Italian households. We use five cross-sectional budget surveys to separately construct the age and cohort profiles of the saving rate. After detrending the data, we isolate the age and cohort effects on saving. Cohort effects show that, in the current Italian population, saving behaviour is markedly different across generations. The estimates obtained on survey data are then used to derive a forecast of the medium and long run tendency of the household saving rate (2000-2050). In the absence of any changes in the saving behaviour of young cohorts, the saving rate falls by 15% at the end of the period. The recent reforms of the pension system could induce the young to increase their saving, but the available empirical evidence leads to a scenario where the effects of the pension reform on the incentive to save and accumulate are low, and may be neutralised by the mechanism of intergenerational transfers. Even in a scenario where the young actually react to the pension reform, the reduction in total household wealth at the end of the life-cycle leads to a decrease in aggregate household saving.

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Paper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 366.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:366
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  1. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998. "Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S. Households," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(3), pages 575-609.
  3. Kapteyn, Arie & Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2005. "Explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts: Productivity growth and Social Security," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1361-1391, July.
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  7. Paxson, Christina, 1996. "Saving and growth: Evidence from micro data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 255-288, February.
  8. Orazio Attanasio, 1993. "A cohort analysis of saving behaviour by US households," IFS Working Papers W93/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  9. Rossi, Nicola & Visco, Ignazio, 1995. "National saving and social security in Italy," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 329-356, December.
  10. David A. Wise & Steven F. Venti, 1993. "The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans," NBER Working Papers 4600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  13. David E. Bloom, 1985. "On the Nature and Estimation of Age. Period, and Cohort Effects in Demographic Data," NBER Working Papers 1700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Orazio Attanasio & James Banks, 1998. "Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 547-583, October.
  16. Angus Deaton & Christina H. Paxson, 1993. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 4330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 1995. "Age and Cohort Effects in Saving and the German Retirement System," Discussion Papers 513, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  18. Deaton, A., 1997. "Saving and Growth," Papers 180, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
  19. Borsch-Supan, Axel, 1995. "Age and cohort effects in saving and the German retirement system," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 207-233, September.
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