Transizione demografica e formazione del risparmio delle famiglie italiane
This paper studies the relationship between population ageing and saving formation by Italian households. We use five cross-sectional budget surveys to separately construct the age and cohort profiles of the saving rate. After detrending the data, we isolate the age and cohort effects on saving. Cohort effects show that, in the current Italian population, saving behaviour is markedly different across generations. The estimates obtained on survey data are then used to derive a forecast of the medium and long run tendency of the household saving rate (2000-2050). In the absence of any changes in the saving behaviour of young cohorts, the saving rate falls by 15% at the end of the period. The recent reforms of the pension system could induce the young to increase their saving, but the available empirical evidence leads to a scenario where the effects of the pension reform on the incentive to save and accumulate are low, and may be neutralised by the mechanism of intergenerational transfers. Even in a scenario where the young actually react to the pension reform, the reduction in total household wealth at the end of the life-cycle leads to a decrease in aggregate household saving.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Piazza Scaravilli, 2, and Strada Maggiore, 45, 40125 Bologna|
Phone: +39 051 209 8019 and 2600
Fax: +39 051 209 8040 and 2664
Web page: http://www.dse.unibo.it
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rossi, Nicola & Visco, Ignazio, 1995. "National saving and social security in Italy," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 329-356, December.
- David A. Wise & Steven F. Venti, 1993.
"The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans,"
NBER Working Papers
4600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 1996. "The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans," NBER Working Papers 5609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miles, David, 1999.
"Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
- Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christina Paxson, 1995.
"Saving and Growth: Evidence from Micro Data,"
NBER Working Papers
5301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazio Attanasio & James Banks, 1998. "Trends in household saving don't justify tax incentives to boost saving," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 547-583, October.
- Orazio P. Attanasio, 1998.
"Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S. Households,"
Journal of Human Resources,
University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 33(3), pages 575-609.
- Orazio P. Attanasio, 1993. "A Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S. Households," NBER Working Papers 4454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Angus S. Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1994.
"Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan,"
in: Studies in the Economics of Aging, pages 331-362
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Borsch-Supan, Axel, 1995. "Age and cohort effects in saving and the German retirement system," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 207-233, September.
- Börsch-Supan, Axel, 1995. "Age and Cohort Effects in Saving and the German Retirement System," Discussion Papers 513, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
- A. Kapteijn & R. Alessie & A. Lusardi, 2003.
"Explaining the Wealth Holdings of Different Cohorts: Productivity Growth and Social Security,"
01-03, Utrecht School of Economics.
- Kapteyn, Arie & Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 2005. "Explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts: Productivity growth and Social Security," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1361-1391, July.
- Kapteyn, Arie & Alessie, Rob & Lusardi, Annamaria, 1999. "Explaining the wealth holdings of different cohorts : productivity growth and social security," Serie Research Memoranda 0038, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Arie Kapteyn & Rob Alessie & Annamaria Lusardi, 1999. "Explaining the Wealth Holdings of Different Cohorts: Productivity Growth and Social Security," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-069/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge,"
553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Deaton, A., 1997. "Saving and Growth," Papers 180, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Tullio Jappelli & Franco Modigliani, 1998. "The Age-Saving Profile and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis," CSEF Working Papers 09, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Borsch-Supan, Axel, 1992. "Saving and Consumption Patterns of the Elderly: The German Case," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(4), pages 289-303.
- repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
- David E. Bloom, 1985. "On the Nature and Estimation of Age. Period, and Cohort Effects in Demographic Data," NBER Working Papers 1700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 1999.
"Growth, demographic structure, and national saving in Taiwan,"
224, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
- Deaton, A. & Paxson, C., 1998. "Growth, Demographic Structure, and National Saving in Taiwan," Papers 183, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Jappelli, Tullio, 1995. "Does social security reduce the accumulation of private wealth? Evidence from Italian survey data," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 1-31, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.