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Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys

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  • Bovi, Maurizio

Abstract

Permanent and widespread psychological biases affect both the subjective probability of future economic events and their retrospective interpretation. They may give rise to a systematic gap between (over-critical) judgments and (over-optimistic) expectations - the "forecast" error. When things go bad, then, psychology suggests that people tend to become particularly bullish, amplifying the forecast error. Also, psychology argues that personal/future conditions are systematically perceived to be better than the aggregate/past ones. All this sharply contrasts with standard economic assumptions. Evidence from a unique dataset covering 10 European countries over 22Â years confirms the presence of structural psychologically driven distortions in people's judgments and expectations formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Bovi, Maurizio, 2009. "Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 563-574, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:30:y:2009:i:4:p:563-574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    2. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen, 2015. "Firm optimism and pessimism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 297-325.
    3. Witt, Ulrich & Binder, Martin, 2013. "Disentangling motivational and experiential aspects of “utility” – A neuroeconomics perspective," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 27-40.
    4. Maurizio Bovi, 2016. "The tale of two expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(6), pages 2677-2705, November.
    5. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bovi, Maurizio & Cerqueti, Roy, 2015. "Over consumption. A horse race of Bayesian DSGE models," MPRA Paper 66445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bovi, Maurizio, 2013. "Are the representative agent’s beliefs based on efficient econometric models?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 633-648.
    7. Elisabeth Beckmann & Isabella Moder, 2013. "Households’ Expectations and Macroeconomic Outcomes – Evidence from the Euro Survey," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 65-76.
    8. Michael Dietrich, 2010. "Efficiency and profitability: a panel data analysis of UK manufacturing firms, 1993-2007," Working Papers 2010003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2010.
    9. Dickerson, Andy & Green, Francis, 2012. "Fears and realisations of employment insecurity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 198-210.
    10. repec:spr:annopr:v:247:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10479-015-1879-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Maurizio Bovi, 2014. "Shocks and the Expectations Formation Process. A Tale of Two Expectations," Natural Field Experiments 00390, The Field Experiments Website.

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