Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel
Income expectations play a central role in household decision making. In the life cycle model for example, consumption and savings decisions reflect expectations of future income. In empirical applications where direct information on expectations is not available, it is usually assumed that expectations are rational, and reflected by observed future realizations. In this paper, we analyze direct subjective information on expected changes of household income in one panel wave of Dutch families. First, we describe these data and investigate how the expectations can be explained by, among other variables, income changes in the past. Second, we combine these data with information on realized income changes in the next panel wave, and analyze the differences between expected and realized changes. We find that, on average, households underestimate their future income changes significantly. In particular, this holds for those families whose income has fallen in the past.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hardle, W., 1992.
"Applied Nonparametric Methods,"
9204, Catholique de Louvain - Institut de statistique.
- HÃ„RDLE, Wolfgang, 1992. "Applied nonparametric methods," CORE Discussion Papers 1992003, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Wolfgang Hardle & Oliver Linton, 1994. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1069, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hardle, W., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Papers 9206, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Härdle, W.K., 1992. "Applied Nonparametric Methods," Discussion Paper 1992-6, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982.
"The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March.
- Robert E. Hall & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," NBER Working Papers 0505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kapteyn, A.J. & Kooreman, P. & Willemse, R., 1987.
"Some methodological issues in the implementation of subjective poverty definitions,"
FEW 245, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Arie Kapteyn & Peter Kooreman & Rob Willemse, 1988. "Some Methodological Issues in the Implementation of Subjective Poverty Definitions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(2), pages 222-242.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992.
"Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1992.
"How does future income affect current consumption?,"
Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section
126, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carroll, Christopher D, 1994. "How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 111-47, February.
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1994.
"Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints and Portfolio Choice,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-72, March.
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994.
"Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations,"
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Kimball, Miles S, 1990.
"Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 53-73, January.
- Miles S. Kimball, 1989. "Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large," NBER Working Papers 2848, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Oliver LINTON, .
"Applied nonparametric methods,"
Statistic und Oekonometrie
9312, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
- Hey, John D., 1994. "Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-349, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:32:y:1997:i:1:p:137-154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.