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Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Brown

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Karl Taylor

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Robert McNabb

Abstract

We explore the determinants of individuals´ financial expectations using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) 1991-2001. Our findings suggest that individuals´ financial predictions are influenced by both the life cycle and the business cycle. We also investigate the extent to which the accuracy of past financial expectations affects current financial expectations. Interestingly, only past financial optimism matters, regardless of the accuracy of the prediction. We also explore the relationship between financial realisations and expectations and we find that expectations tend to fall short of financial realisations. Finally, we investigate the relationship between financial expectations, savings and consumption. Our findings suggest that financial optimism is inversely associated with savings and that current financial expectations serve to predict future consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2006. "Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis," Working Papers 2006006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2006006
    as

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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/05/59/85/SERP2006006.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/05/59/85/SERP2006006.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
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    3. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-172, March.
    4. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    5. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    6. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 1797-1855, December.
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    8. Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1999. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 409-426, December.
    10. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    11. OR Attanasio & J Banks, 2001. "The assessment: household saving - issues in theory and policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, Spring.
    12. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005. "Debt and Financial Expectations: An Individual- and Household-Level Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 100-120, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anita Ratcliffe, 2012. "Wealth Effects or Economic Barometer: Why Do House Prices Matter for Psychological Health?," Working Papers 2012014, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:spr:soinre:v:133:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1376-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bovi, Maurizio, 2009. "Economic versus psychological forecasting. Evidence from consumer confidence surveys," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 563-574, August.
    4. Lena Dräger, 2016. "Are Consumers Planning Consumption According to an Euler Equation?," Working Papers 1621, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    5. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
    6. Maurizio Bovi, 2008. "The “Psycho-analysis” of Common People’s Forecast Errors. Evidence from European Consumer Surveys," ISAE Working Papers 95 Classification-JEL C42, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    7. Lukáš Mohelský, 2011. "Impact of the Car Scrapping Scheme on Consumer Behaviour and Aggregate Consumption," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(3), pages 268-287.
    8. Erden, Zeynep & Klang, David & Sydler, Renato & von Krogh, Georg, 2014. "Knowledge-flows and firm performance," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 2777-2785.
    9. Aneta Maria Kłopocka & Tomasz Kopczyński & Grażyna Lenicka-Bajer, 2014. "Financial Situation And Attitudes Towards Saving In Polish Society:Evidence From Micro Data," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0, pages 476-486, May.
    10. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Expectations, Reservation Wages And Employment: Evidence From British Panel Data," Working Papers 2008007, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2008.
    11. repec:nsr:niesrd:287 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dawson, Chris & Henley, Andrew, 2012. "Something will turn up? Financial over-optimism and mortgage arrears," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 49-52.
    13. Bibiana Lanzilotta Mernies, 2015. "Expectativas empresariales: consecuencias en el crecimiento en Uruguay," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Financial Expectations; Financial Realisations; Forecasting Accuracy; Savings.;

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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