Financial expectations, consumption and saving: a microeconomic analysis
We explore the determinants of individuals' financial expectations using data from the British Household Panel Survey, 1991-2003. Our findings suggest that individuals' financial predictions are influenced by both the life cycle and the business cycle. We also investigate the extent to which the accuracy of past financial expectations affects current financial expectations. Regardless of the accuracy of the prediction, past financial optimism has a positive effect on current expectations formation whilst past financial pessimism has a negative effect. We also explore the relationship between financial realisations and expectations and we find that expectations tend to fall short of financial realisations. Finally, we investigate how financial expectations influence saving and consumption. Our findings suggest that financial optimism is inversely associated with saving and that current financial expectations serve to predict future consumption.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 27 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
Phone: (+44) 020 7291 4800
Fax: (+44) 020 7323 4780
Web page: http://www.ifs.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994.
"Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffery C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "RATS code for Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," QM&RBC Codes 49, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992.
"Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
699, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- OR Attanasio & J Banks, 2001. "The assessment: household saving - issues in theory and policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, Spring.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1994.
"Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints and Portfolio Choice,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1996. "Income Risk, Borrowing Constraints, and Portfolio Choice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 158-172, March.
- J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, "undated".
"Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations,"
Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers
1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," NBER Working Papers 4937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 1994. "Using Expectations Data to Study Subjective Income Expectations," Econometrics 9411003, EconWPA.
- Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, 09.
- Das, Marcel & van Soest, Arthur, 1999.
"A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 409-426, December.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "A panel data model for subjective information on household income growth," Other publications TiSEM a6683363-b5a6-4fe7-b062-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Das, J.W.M. & van Soest, A.H.O., 1996. "A Panel Data Model for Subjective Information on Household Income Growth," Discussion Paper 1996-75, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Lusardi, Annamaria, 1998. "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 449-453, May.
- Daron Acemoglu & Andrew Scott, 1993.
"Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0119, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
- Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
- Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1996.
"Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts,"
96-01, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005.
"Debt and Financial Expectations: An Individual- and Household-Level Analysis,"
Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 100-120, January.
- Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004.
- Manski, C.F., 1989. "The Use Of Intentions Data To Predict Behaviour : A Best- Case Analysis," Working papers 8905, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Alessandra Guariglia, 2001. "Saving behaviour and earnings uncertainty: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 619-634.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:27:y:2006:i:3:p:313-338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emma Hyman)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.