Unemployment and Consumption in Chile
This article presents an empirical study of the effect of unemployment on aggregate consumption of non-durable goods in Chile (1990-2002). Using an error-correction model, the results show that unemployment lags have a negative and statistically significant sort-run impact on consumption growth. Three hypotheses that relate unemployment and consumption are also analyzed. First, it is shown that unemployment is not a good predictor of future disposable income. Therefore, it does not signal changes in permanent income. Moreover, the results do not support the implications of the certainty-equivalence version of the permanent income hypothesis. Second, there is evidence that unemployment affects income volatility. Hence, the relationship between unemployment and consumption could be explained by the precautionary savings motive. However, for this mechanism to be consistent with the fact that unemployment has a negative impact on consumption growth, the effect of uncertainty on consumption must be persistent. Finally, there is also evidence that unemployment could affect consumption through its effect on income distribution. However, the latter result is not robust.
|Date of creation:||May 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1995.
"Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
1995-02, McMaster University.
- Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January.
- Stephen P. Zeldes, "undated".
"Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
16-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
- Stephen Zeldes, "undated". "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 24-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003.
"Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 1999. "Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christopher D Carroll & Karen E Dynan & Spencer D Krane, 1999. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," Economics Working Paper Archive 416, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Serven, 2000. "Policy Shifts and External Shocks in Chile Under Rational Expectations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1098, Econometric Society.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Scott, Andrew, 1994.
"Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents' Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 1-19, January.
- Daron Acemoglu & Andrew Scott, 1993. "Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0119, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Oriana Bandiera & Gerard Caprio Jr. & Patrick Honohan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1998.
"Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Savings?,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
413, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lusardi, Annamaria, 1997. "Precautionary saving and subjective earnings variance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 319-326, December.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1995.
"How Important is Precautionary Saving?,"
NBER Working Papers
5194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrea Butelmann & Francisco Gallego, 2001. "Estimaciones de los Determinantes del Ahorro Voluntario de los Hogares en Chile (1988 Y 1997)," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 97, Central Bank of Chile.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
- Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lusardi, Annamaria, 1998. "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 449-453, May.
- Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-1113, December.
- Malley, James R & Moutos, Thomas, 1996. "Unemployment and Consumption," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 584-600, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:258. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.