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Unemployment and Consumption

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  • Malley, James R
  • Moutos, Thomas

Abstract

In this paper, the authors argue that the aggregate unemployment rate is a valuable measure of aggregate income uncertainty. According to the theory of precautionary saving, an increase in income uncertainty would be expected to increase saving. The authors use U.S. quarterly data on the consumption of motor vehicles first to examine whether unemployment has a negative effect on consumption and then to differentiate between the various explanations for this phenomenon. They conclude that the negative relationship between unemployment and consumption is due in large part to precautionary saving motives. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Malley, James R & Moutos, Thomas, 1996. "Unemployment and Consumption," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 584-600, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:48:y:1996:i:4:p:584-600
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Saito, Makoto & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2003. "Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(3), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Erik Hjalmarsson & Pär Österholm, 2010. "Testing for cointegration using the Johansen methodology when variables are near-integrated: size distortions and partial remedies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 51-76, August.
    3. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2013. "Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 323-349.
    4. Bergman, Michael, 2000. "The 'Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis' and Uncertainty About the Permanence of Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers 2000:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    5. Jürgen Arns & Kaushik Bhattacharya, 2005. "Modelling Aggregate Consumption Growth with Time-Varying Parameters," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse15_2005, University of Bonn, Germany.
    6. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
    7. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2016. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the Great Recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," MPRA Paper 72436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Garz, Marcel, 2014. "Consumption, labor income uncertainty, and economic news coverage," MPRA Paper 56076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Claudio Soto, 2004. "Unemployment and Consumption in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 258, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2012. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship in Spain: An Analysis with Regional Data," Documentos de trabajo - IRENe 0003, IDEGA - Instituto Universitario de Estudios e Desenvolvemento de Galicia.
    12. Baxter, J. L. & Moosa, I. A., 1996. "The consumption function: A basic needs hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-100, October.
    13. Claudio Soto G., 2004. "Desempleo y Consumo en Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(1), pages 31-50, April.

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