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Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data

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  • Bande, Roberto
  • Riveiro, Dolores

Abstract

The onset of the Great Recession has been followed by increasing saving rates, which may reflect precautionary behaviour of households. In spite of a broad agreement on the theoretical implications of uncertainty on saving rates, empirical work has not yet reached a consensus on which is the most reliable measure of uncertainty. In this paper we empirically test the precautionary saving theory and explore different measures of macroeconomic uncertainty, using Spanish regional data for the period 1980-2007. Our results suggest that part of the large increase in saving rates that took place in the aftermath of the recession is related to a precautionary motive and that increased uncertainty causes greater savings rates. Moreover, our results also suggest that, in the case of the Spanish economy, the unemployment rate is a relevant variable to measure future income uncertainty.

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  • Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2012. "Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data," MPRA Paper 42647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42647
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    Cited by:

    1. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores & Ruiz, Freddy, 2021. "Does Uncertainty Affect Saving Decisions of Colombian Households? Evidence on Precautionary Saving," MPRA Paper 106771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lichner, Ivan & Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrostová, Eva, 2022. "Nominal and discretionary household income convergence: The effect of a crisis in a small open economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 18-31.
    3. Renáta Pitoňáková, 2018. "Private Sector Savings," DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, European Association Comenius - EACO, issue 1, pages 1-17, March.
    4. Lenka Mynaříková & Vít Pošta, 2023. "The Effect of Consumer Confidence and Subjective Well-being on Consumers’ Spending Behavior," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 429-453, February.
    5. Aneta Maria Kłopocka, 2017. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Saving and Borrowing Behavior? Evidence for Poland," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 693-717, September.
    6. Aneta M. Klopocka & Rumiana Gorska, 2021. "Forecasting Household Saving Rate with Consumer Confidence Indicator and its Components: Panel Data Analysis of 14 European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 874-898.
    7. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2014. "El impacto de la crisis en el deterioro alimentario en España," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2014-04, July.
    8. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    9. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2012. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship in Spain: an Analysis with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 42681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aneta Maria Kłopocka & Tomasz Kopczyński & Grażyna Lenicka-Bajer, 2014. "Financial Situation And Attitudes Towards Saving In Polish Society:Evidence From Micro Data," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0, pages 476-486, May.
    11. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Shida, Yoshisada, 2015. "Forced Savings in the Soviet Republics: Re-examination," RRC Working Paper Series 54, Russian Research Center, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Marina Matosec & Zdenka Obuljen Zoricic, 2019. "Identifying the Interdependence between Consumer Confidence and Macroeconomic Developments in Croatia," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(2-B), pages 345-354.
    14. Levenko, Natalia, 2020. "Perceived uncertainty as a key driver of household saving," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 126-145.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Precautionary savings; uncertainty; regions; Spain;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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