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Consumption and uncertainty: a panel analysis in Italian Regions

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  • Mario Menegatti

Abstract

This work tests precautionary saving theory in Italian regions, examining the relationship between consumption growth and income uncertainty in a panel of five-year averages in the period 1981 to 2000. The analysis used two different measures for income uncertainty. The first is a naive measure given by the variance of GDP growth rates while the second is a more sophisticated one obtained by computing the conditional variance by means of the expectation of GDP growth. This expectation is obtained by using the best ARMA process for each region. The results obtained confirm the importance of the precautionary saving motive in consumption decisions.

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  • Mario Menegatti, 2007. "Consumption and uncertainty: a panel analysis in Italian Regions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 39-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:39-42
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425600
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    Cited by:

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    2. Garz, Marcel, 2014. "Consumption, labor income uncertainty, and economic news coverage," MPRA Paper 56076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Tsouknidis, Dimitris, 2023. "Household deposits and consumer sentiment expectations: Evidence from Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Baiardi, Donatella & Manera, Matteo & Menegatti, Mario, 2013. "Consumption and precautionary saving: An empirical analysis under both financial and environmental risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 157-166.
    5. Baiardi, Donatella & Manera, Matteo & Menegatti, Mario, 2014. "The Effects of Environmental Risk on Consumption: an Empirical Analysis on the Mediterranean Countries," Energy: Resources and Markets 172443, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Yoshihiko Kadoya, 2016. "What makes people anxious about life after the age of 65? Evidence from international survey research in Japan, the United States, China, and India," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 443-461, June.
    7. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Mario Menegatti, 2010. "Uncertainty And Consumption: New Evidence In Oecd Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 227-242, July.
    9. Tran Nguyen Van, 2022. "Understanding Household Consumption Behaviour: What do we Learn from a Developing Country?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(4), pages 801-858, October.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Maki Nayeri, Majid, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and consumption in G7 countries: An asymmetry analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 101-113.
    11. Alba Lugilde & Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2018. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the great recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 1151-1179, December.
    12. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2012. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship in Spain: an Analysis with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 42681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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