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Consumption and uncertainty: a panel analysis in Italian Regions


  • Mario Menegatti


This work tests precautionary saving theory in Italian regions, examining the relationship between consumption growth and income uncertainty in a panel of five-year averages in the period 1981 to 2000. The analysis used two different measures for income uncertainty. The first is a naive measure given by the variance of GDP growth rates while the second is a more sophisticated one obtained by computing the conditional variance by means of the expectation of GDP growth. This expectation is obtained by using the best ARMA process for each region. The results obtained confirm the importance of the precautionary saving motive in consumption decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Menegatti, 2007. "Consumption and uncertainty: a panel analysis in Italian Regions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 39-42.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:14:y:2007:i:1:p:39-42 DOI: 10.1080/13504850500425600

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Alessandra Guariglia & Byung-Yeon Kim, 2003. "The Effects of Consumption Variability on Saving: Evidence from a Panel of Muscovite Households," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(3), pages 357-377, July.
    2. Steigerwald, Doug, 1997. "Consumption Adjustment under Changing Income Uncertainty," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt5kp8k6xc, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    3. Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio & Terlizzese, Daniele, 1992. "Earnings uncertainty and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 307-337, November.
    4. Menegatti, Mario, 2001. "On the Conditions for Precautionary Saving," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 189-193, May.
    5. Lyhagen, Johan, 1997. "The Effect of Precautionary Saving on Consumption in Sweden," Working Papers 58, National Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Antonello Scorcu, 1998. "Consumption risk-sharing in Italy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 407-414.
    7. Johan Lyhagen, 2001. "The effect of precautionary saving on consumption in Sweden," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 673-681.
    8. Karen E. Dynan, 1993. "How prudent are consumers?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 135, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Lusardi, Annamaria, 1998. "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 449-453, May.
    10. Dynan, Karen E, 1993. "How Prudent Are Consumers?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(6), pages 1104-1113, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Bande & Dolores Riveiro, 2013. "Private Saving Rates and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Spanish Regional Data," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 323-349.
    2. Garz, Marcel, 2014. "Consumption, labor income uncertainty, and economic news coverage," MPRA Paper 56076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Baiardi, Donatella & Manera, Matteo & Menegatti, Mario, 2013. "Consumption and precautionary saving: An empirical analysis under both financial and environmental risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 157-166.
    4. Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2012. "The Consumption-Investment-Unemployment Relationship in Spain: an Analysis with Regional Data," MPRA Paper 42681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Donatella Baiardi & Matteo Manera & Mario Menegatti, 2014. "The Effects of Environmental Risk on Consumption: an Empirical Analysis on the Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 271, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2014.
    6. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2016. "Precautionary saving in Spain during the Great Recession: evidence from a panel of uncertainty indicators," MPRA Paper 72436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lugilde, Alba & Bande, Roberto & Riveiro, Dolores, 2017. "Precautionary Saving: a review of the theory and the evidence," MPRA Paper 77511, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yoshihiko Kadoya, 2016. "What makes people anxious about life after the age of 65? Evidence from international survey research in Japan, the United States, China, and India," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 443-461, June.

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