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Policy uncertainty and consumption in G7 countries: An asymmetry analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Majid Maki Nayeri

Abstract

In this study, we aim at assessing the effects of policy uncertainty on consumption in G7 countries. Unlike previous research, we take an additional step and show that the impacts are asymmetric, which helps us to have a better understanding of the effects of increased versus decreased uncertainty in the G7 economies. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty has indeed asymmetric effects on consumer expenditure in all G7 countries. These findings imply that the positive and the negative shocks could not offset each other’s impact on consumption, which leads to a different path of consumption before and after a period with a high level of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and consumption in G7 countries: An asymmetry analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 101-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2020-q3-163-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Emre Sakar & Mahmut Unsal Sasmaz & Ahmet Ozen, 2025. "The Nexus Between Tax Revenue, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Economic Growth: Evidence from G7 Economies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-34, July.
    2. Salah A. Nusair & Dennis Olson, 2026. "The Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty Changes on Unemployment in the G7 Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 63-114, March.
    3. Borozan, Dj, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of policy uncertainty on renewable energy consumption in G7 countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 412-420.
    4. Xuejun Jin & Xue Zhou & Xiaolan Yang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between household debt and consumption?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4783-4806, December.
    5. Renxing Chen & Yu Hu & Yixin Xue & Xiaotian Zhang, 2025. "Social security as a buffer: examining the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and rural consumption," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    6. Xi Wang & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Emmanuel Uche & Qianli Zhao, 2024. "The asymmetric effect of income and price changes on the consumption expenditures: evidence from G7 countries using nonlinear bounds testing approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(1), pages 35-53, January.
    7. Salah A. Nusair, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty and industrial output in the G7 countries: an asymmetric analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 1-40, October.
    8. Simran, & Sharma, Anil Kumar, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on cryptocurrency market: Evidence from NARDL approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Emmanuel Uche & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Lionel Effiom, 2023. "Household consumption and exchange rate extreme dynamics: Multiple asymmetric threshold non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag model perspective," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3437-3450, July.
    10. Wu, You & Xu, Gang & Wang, Xing & Wang, Shengqi & Zhu, Wenhan, 2025. "The impact of internet use and life satisfaction on household consumption expenditure: Based on empirical data from Chinese surveys," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    11. Xu, Can, 2023. "Do households react to policy uncertainty by increasing savings?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 770-785.
    12. Jawadi, Fredj & Pondie, Thierry M., 2024. "Political uncertainty and macro-financial dynamics in the BRICS," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    13. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Massil, Joseph Keneck & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Yogo, Urbain Thierry, 2025. "Uncertainty and household consumption in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 51-64.
    15. Dirks, Maximilian W. & Schmidt, Torsten, 2024. "Political instability and economic growth: Causation and transmission," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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