IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v62y2022i5p4783-4806.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How does economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between household debt and consumption?

Author

Listed:
  • Xuejun Jin
  • Xue Zhou
  • Xiaolan Yang

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the consumption response to household debt using household‐level data from China. Our results suggest that there is a positive relationship between household debt and consumption. However, a higher level of economic policy uncertainty not only weakens this positive relationship but also inhibits the effect of household debt on the consumption structure. In addition, the negative impacts of policy uncertainty are stronger among households that are more liquidity constrained, whose heads have lower cognitive abilities and financial literacy, and that are located in provinces with lower levels of digital financial inclusion.

Suggested Citation

  • Xuejun Jin & Xue Zhou & Xiaolan Yang, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between household debt and consumption?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(5), pages 4783-4806, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:62:y:2022:i:5:p:4783-4806
    DOI: 10.1111/acfi.13000
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/acfi.13000
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/acfi.13000?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. T. Ballinger & Eric Hudson & Leonie Karkoviata & Nathaniel Wilcox, 2011. "Saving behavior and cognitive abilities," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 14(3), pages 349-374, September.
    3. Raddatz, Claudio, 2006. "Liquidity needs and vulnerability to financial underdevelopment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 677-722, June.
    4. Giuseppe Bertola & Richard Disney & Charles Grant (ed.), 2006. "The Economics of Consumer Credit," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262026015, April.
    5. Kukk, Merike, 2016. "How did household indebtedness hamper consumption during the recession? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 764-786.
    6. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
    7. Caldara, Dario & Iacoviello, Matteo & Molligo, Patrick & Prestipino, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2020. "The economic effects of trade policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 38-59.
    8. Wang, Yang & Zhou, Yang & Yu, Xinxin & Liu, Xiao, 2021. "Is domestic consumption dragged down by real estate sector?—Evidence from Chinese household wealth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1755-1817.
    10. Sheng Guo & William Hardin, 2014. "Wealth, Composition, Housing, Income and Consumption," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 221-243, February.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Narcissa Balta & Ismael Valdes Fernandez & Eric Ruscher, 2013. "Assessing the impact of uncertainty on consumption and investment," Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission, vol. 12(2), pages 7-16, June.
    14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2020. "How Does Credit Supply Expansion Affect the Real Economy? The Productive Capacity and Household Demand Channels," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 949-994, April.
    15. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106.
    17. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Keith Kuester & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2015. "Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3352-3384, November.
    19. Kimberly Beaton, 2009. "Credit Constraints and Consumer Spending," Staff Working Papers 09-25, Bank of Canada.
    20. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    21. Milton Friedman, 1957. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 20-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Thitima Chucherd, 2006. "The Effect of Household Debt on Consumption in Thailand," Working Papers 2006-06, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2020. "Policy uncertainty and consumption in G7 countries: An asymmetry analysis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 163, pages 101-113.
    24. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 319-331, April.
    25. Bostic, Raphael & Gabriel, Stuart & Painter, Gary, 2009. "Housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumption: New evidence from micro data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 79-89, January.
    26. Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2021. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 869-892, February.
    27. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    28. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 319-331, April.
    29. Koehler, Derek J. & Langstaff, Jesse & Liu, Wu-Qi, 2015. "A simulated financial savings task for studying consumption and retirement decision making," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 89-97.
    30. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1997. "Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 207-238, October.
    31. Saygin Sahinoz & Evren Erdogan Cosar, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(21), pages 1517-1520, December.
    32. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    33. Zhang, Dongyang & Guo, Rui, 2020. "The consumption response to household leverage in China: The role of investment at household level," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    34. Ogawa, Kazuo & Wan, Junmin, 2007. "Household debt and consumption: A quantitative analysis based on household micro data for Japan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 127-142, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nina Biljanovska & Francesco Grigoli & Martina Hengge, 2021. "Fear thy neighbor: Spillovers from economic policy uncertainty," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 409-438, May.
    2. Si, Deng-Kui & Zhuang, Jiali & Ge, Xinyu & Yu, Yong, 2024. "The nexus between trade policy uncertainty and corporate financialization: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2019. "Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-83.
    4. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    5. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2020. "The impact of trade policy uncertainty shocks on the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 100832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    7. Chow Sheung-Chi & Cunado Juncal & Gupta Rangan & Wong Wing-Keung, 2018. "Causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and housing market returns in China and India: evidence from linear and nonlinear panel and time series models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Angus Moore, 2017. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 550-575, December.
    10. Guo, Junjie & Li, Youshu & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and Business Cycle Research," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 118-166, August.
    12. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Risse, Marian & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 317-337.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Pascal Goemans, 2021. "Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 623-646, May.
    14. Suyi Zheng & Jiandong Wen, 2023. "How Does Firm-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-23, April.
    15. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The impact of US uncertainty on the Euro area in good and bad times: evidence from a quantile structural vector autoregressive model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 353-368, May.
    16. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    17. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    18. Pierdzioch Christian & Gupta Rangan, 2020. "Uncertainty and Forecasts of U.S. Recessions," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(4), pages 1-20, September.
    19. Andrea Carriero & Alessio Volpicella, 2022. "Generalizing the Max Share Identification to multiple shocks identification: an Application to Uncertainty," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0322, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    20. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:62:y:2022:i:5:p:4783-4806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.