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Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty, and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Corinna Ghirelli

    (Banco de España)

  • María Gil

    (Banco de España)

  • Javier J. Pérez

    (Banco de España)

  • Alberto Urtasun

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We provide additional evidence on the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we gather and construct a wide range of proxy indicators of economic and economic policy uncertainty from Spain. We distinguish between the relative merits of different types of measures based on: (i) the volatility of financial markets; (ii) economic analysts’ disagreement; (iii) economic policy uncertainty. We show that the first and the third block of measures are the most relevant to grasp the negative effects of unexpected changes in uncertainty on aggregate economic developments, as measured by real GDP. In addition, we find that economic policy uncertainty and financial uncertainty shocks produce visible negative effects on private consumption. The negative responses on capital goods investments are initially bigger in magnitude but vanish more quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Corinna Ghirelli & María Gil & Javier J. Pérez & Alberto Urtasun, 2019. "Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty, and their macroeconomic effects: the case of Spain," Working Papers 1905, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1905
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic uncertainty; economic policy uncertainty; impact of uncertainty shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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