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Google It Up! A Google Trends-Based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Efrem Castelnuovo

    () (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne; Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova)

  • Trung Duc Tran

    (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

We develop uncertainty indices for the United States and Australia based on freely accessible, real time Google Trends data. Our Google Trends Uncertainty (GTU) indices are found to be positively correlated to a variety of alternative proxies for uncertainty available for these two countries. VAR investigations document an economically and statistically significant contribution to unemployment dynamics by GTU shocks in the United States. In contrast, the contribution of GTU shocks to unemployment dynamics in Australia is found to be much milder and substantially lower than that of monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Efrem Castelnuovo & Trung Duc Tran, 2017. "Google It Up! A Google Trends-Based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2017n27
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Bloom., 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 4.
    2. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2017. "Estimating the real effects of uncertainty shocks at the Zero Lower Bound," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 257-272.
    3. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.
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    5. Sydney Ludvigson, 2016. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response," 2016 Meeting Papers 183, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Angus Moore, 2017. "Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 550-575, December.
    7. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    8. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
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    13. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
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    15. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2014. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0188, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Juan Manuel Figueres, 2017. "Economic Policy Uncertainty Spillovers in Booms and Busts," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. repec:eee:ecolet:v:171:y:2018:i:c:p:58-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2018. "What do we know about the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy? A brief survey of the literature on fiscal multipliers," CAMA Working Papers 2018-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. repec:bla:ausecr:v:51:y:2018:i:1:p:70-86 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Google Trends Uncertainty indices; uncertainty shocks; unemployment dynamics; VAR analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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