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An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty

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  • Steven J. Davis

Abstract

Building on Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016), I construct a monthly index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) from January 1997. The GEPU Index is a GDP-weighted average of national EPU indices for 16 countries that account for two-thirds of global output. Each national EPU index reflects the relative frequency of own-country newspaper articles that contain a trio of terms pertaining to the economy, uncertainty and policy-related matters. The GEPU Index rises sharply in reaction to the Asian Financial Crisis, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09, the European immigration crisis, concerns about the Chinese economy in late 2015, and the Brexit referendum in June 2016. It fluctuates around consistently high levels from mid 2011 to early 2013, a period characterized by recurring sovereign debt and banking crises in the Eurozone, intense partisan battles over fiscal and healthcare policies in the United States, and a generational leadership transition in China. The average value of the GEPU Index is 60 percent higher from July 2011 to August 2016 than in the previous fourteen and one-half years and 22 percent higher than in 2008-09.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven J. Davis, 2016. "An Index of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 22740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22740
    Note: EFG PE POL
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
    2. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    3. Francesco Giavazzi & Michael McMahon, 2012. "Policy Uncertainty and Household Savings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 517-531, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Tran, Trung Duc, 2017. "Google It Up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty index for the United States and Australia," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 149-153.
    2. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:189-200 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:127-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Goodness C. Aye & Christina Christou & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting the Probability of Recessions in South Africa: The Role of Decomposed Term-Spread and Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201680, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    5. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Uncertainty over Production Forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly firm survey data," Discussion papers 17081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Elif C. Arbatli & Steven J. Davis & Arata Ito & Naoko Miake & Ikuo Saito, 2017. "Policy Uncertainty In Japan," NBER Working Papers 23411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:lrk:eeaart:36_1_16 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eee:phsmap:v:505:y:2018:i:c:p:931-940 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Efrem Castelnuovo & Trung Duc Tran, 2018. "Google it up! A Google Trends-based Uncertainty Index for the United States and Australia," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0223, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

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