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Expectation errors, uncertainty, and economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Yavuz Arslan
  • Aslıhan Atabek
  • Timur Hulagu
  • Saygın Şahinöz

Abstract

In this article we analyse the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity. For this purpose, we use a firm-level panel data set from Turkey to form proxies for uncertainty by using expectation errors of firms about their production volumes. The identifying assumption is that the probability of making an expectation error increases when the uncertainty faced increases. An analysis of the downturn in 2008–2009 shows that 44% of the decline in industrial production can be attributed to increased uncertainty. Moreover, we show that if a firm faces higher uncertainty it is more likely that it defers its investment plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Yavuz Arslan & Aslıhan Atabek & Timur Hulagu & Saygın Şahinöz, 2015. "Expectation errors, uncertainty, and economic activity," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 634-660.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:3:p:634-660.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpv003
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," IREA Working Papers 201806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    2. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2017. "Uncertainty over Production Forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly firm survey data," Discussion papers 17081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Bulut, Mustafa & Karasoy, Hatice Gökçe, 2016. "Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği
      [Transmission Mechanism Under Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Case of Turkey]
      ," MPRA Paper 71215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Aslıhan Atabek Demirhan & Burcu Gürcihan Yüncüler, 2017. "Employment growth and uncertainty: evidence from Turkey," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Uses of central balance sheet data offices' information, volume 45, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth-Sloane, Caren, 2015. "Investment effects of wealth taxes under uncertainty and irreversibility," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 192, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    6. Basile, Roberto & Girardi, Alessandro, 2018. "Uncertainty and Business Cycle: A Review of the Literature and Some Evidence from the Spanish Economy/Incertidumbre y Ciclo Empresarial: Revisión de la literatura y evidencia en la economía española," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 36, pages 235-250, Enero.
    7. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 163-179.
    8. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2018. "Measuring Firm-level Uncertainty: New evidence from a business outlook survey," Discussion papers 18030, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Stephanie Denis & Prakash Kannan, 2013. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy," IMF Working Papers 13/66, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom, 2013. "Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments," CEP Discussion Papers dp1243, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Christian Glocker & Werner Hölzl, 2019. "Assessing the Economic Content of Direct and Indirect Business Uncertainty Measures," WIFO Working Papers 576, WIFO.
    13. Albert, Juan-Francisco & Gómez Fernández, Nerea, 2018. "The impact of uncertainty shocks in Spain: SVAR approach with sign restrictions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90402, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2015. "Investment Effects of Wealth Taxes under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," CESifo Working Paper Series 5610, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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