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Durable consumption, bank distress, economic concerns, and how they interacted during the great depression

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  • Carlson, Mark

Abstract

This paper explores simultaneous developments in the banking sector and the real economy during the Great Depression and whether these are related to shifts in beliefs about economic prospects. It identifies a notable coincidence of bank closures and declines in consumer durable consumption (new automobile purchases) in Ohio in the early 1930s. To examine whether shifts in beliefs and the economic concerns of households and businesses may have mattered, I test whether keywords from local newspapers related to economic prospects or sentiments are associated with subsequent bank closures and declines in automobile purchases. The results support the idea that beliefs mattered for both of those outcomes, even after accounting for economic fundamentals. The analysis also highlights the importance of local economic conditions in shaping behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlson, Mark, 2025. "Durable consumption, bank distress, economic concerns, and how they interacted during the great depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:exehis:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s0014498325000452
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2025.101698
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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