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Uncertainty and the Great Slump

Author

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  • Lennard, Jason

    () (Department of Economic History, Lund University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the macroeconomy of interwar Britain. A new index of economic policy uncertainty constructed from contemporary newspapers indicates that this was a period of great anxiety. Time series evidence suggests that this uncertainty reduced output, raised unemployment and contributed to macroeconomic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Uncertainty and the Great Slump," Lund Papers in Economic History 170, Lund University, Department of Economic History, revised 14 May 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0170
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    File URL: https://lup.lub.lu.se/search/publication/a3a8350f-db93-4229-8970-623b6c0eebf3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Luca Benati, 2005. "U.K. Monetary Regimes and Macroeconomic Stylised Facts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 107, Society for Computational Economics.
    5. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2013. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of “Keynesian” Policies in 1930s' Britain," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(04), pages 1077-1104, December.
    6. Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
    7. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Banking Crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750-1938," Lund Papers in Economic History 165, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    8. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cloyne, James & Dimsdale, Nicholas & Postel-Vinay, Natacha, 2018. "Taxes and Growth: New Narrative Evidence from Interwar Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 12962, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycles; interwar Britain; local projections; narrative identification; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-

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