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A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825-1929: Construction and Implications

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  • Andrew J. Jalil

Abstract

There are two major problems in identifying the output effects of banking panics of the pre-Great Depression era. First, it is not clear when panics occurred because prior panic series differ in their identification of panic episodes. Second, establishing the direction of causality is tricky. This paper addresses these two problems (i) by deriving a new panic series for the 1825-1929 period and (ii) by studying the output effects of major banking panics via vector autoregression (VAR) and narrative-based methods. The new series has important implications for the history of financial panics in the United States. (JEL E32, E44, G21, N11, N12, N21, N22)

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Jalil, 2015. "A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825-1929: Construction and Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 295-330, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:7:y:2015:i:3:p:295-330
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20130265
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    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The History of U.S. Recessions and Banking Crises
      by Jeffrey Rogers Hummel in Free Banking on 2015-10-22 18:07:05

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Uncertainty and the Great Slump," Lund Papers in Economic History 170, Lund University, Department of Economic History, revised 14 May 2019.
    2. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    3. Grodecka, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2018. "Predictors of Bank Distress:The 1907 Crisis in Sweden," Working Paper Series 358, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    4. Kris James Mitchener & Gary Richardson, 2016. "Network Contagion and Interbank Amplification during the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 22074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. repec:liu:liucej:v:15:y:2018:i:2:p:293-314 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "International Monetary Relations: Taking Finance Seriously," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 3-28, Summer.
    8. Daniel Kaufmann, 2017. "Is Deflation Costly After All? The Perils of Erroneous Historical Classifications," IRENE Working Papers 17-09, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Masami Imai & Tetsuji Okazaki & Michiru Sawada, 2019. "The Effects of Lender of Last Resort on Financial Intermediation during the Great Depression in Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1111, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Ettore Panetti, 2016. "Bank Runs: Theories and Policy Applications," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. repec:bla:ehsrev:v:71:y:2018:i:2:p:480-505 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2017. "New Evidence on the Aftermath of Financial Crises in Advanced Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3072-3118, October.
    13. repec:eee:macchp:v2-355 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Eichengreen, Barry & Esteves, Rui, 2019. "The Trials of the Trilemma: International Finance 1870-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 13465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    17. Jaremski, Matthew & Rousseau, Peter L., 2018. "The dawn of an ‘age of deposits’ in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 264-281.
    18. repec:bla:ecinqu:v:55:y:2017:i:1:p:527-541 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Elena Mattana & Ettore Panetti, 2017. "The Welfare Costs of Self-Fulfilling Bank Runs," Working Papers REM 2017/17, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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